Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) is a large coastal pelagic fish species that represents an important fishery in many coastal Atlantic states of the U.S. They are heavily fished in Virginia when they migrate into Chesapeake Bay during the summer to spawn and feed. These coastal habitats have been subjected to warming and increased hypoxia which in turn could impact the timing of migration and the habitat suitability of Chesapeake Bay. With conditions expected to worsen, we project current and future habitat suitability of Chesapeake Bay for cobia and predict changes in their arrival and departure times as conditions shift. To do this we developed a depth integrated habitat model from archival tagging and physiology data from cobia that used Chesapeake Bay, and applied the model to contemporary and future temperature and oxygen output from a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of Chesapeake Bay. We found that estimated arrival occurs earlier and estimated departure time occurs later when temperatures are warmer and that by mid- and end-of-century cobia may spend on average up to 30 and 65 more days, respectively, in Chesapeake Bay. By mid-century we do not expect habitat suitability to change substantially for cobia, but by end-of-century we project it will significantly decline and shift closer to the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Our study provides evidence that cobia will have the capacity to withstand near term impacts of climate change, but that their migration phenology varies from year to year with changing temperatures. These findings emphasize the need to incorporate the relationship between fishes and their environment into how fisheries are managed. This information can also help guide managers when deciding the timing and allocation of a fishery.

中文翻译：

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估计气候变化下切萨皮克湾军曹鱼的物候变化和栖息地利用变化

军曹鱼 (Rachycentron canadum) 是一种大型沿海中上层鱼类，是美国大西洋沿岸许多州的重要渔业。它们在夏季迁徙到切萨皮克湾产卵和觅食时在弗吉尼亚被大量捕捞。这些沿海栖息地已经受到变暖和缺氧加剧的影响，这反过来又可能影响迁徙时间和切萨皮克湾的栖息地适宜性。由于情况预计会恶化，我们预测了切萨皮克湾目前和未来军曹鱼的栖息地适宜性，并预测它们的到达和离开时间随着情况的变化而变化。为此，我们根据使用切萨皮克湾军曹鱼的档案标记和生理学数据开发了一个深度集成的栖息地模型，并将该模型应用于切萨皮克湾耦合流体动力-生物地球化学模型的当代和未来温度和氧气输出。我们发现，当气温升高时，预计到达时间会提前，预计出发时间会推迟，到本世纪中叶和本世纪末，军曹鱼可能会分别在切萨皮克湾平均多停留 30 天和 65 天。到本世纪中叶，我们预计军曹鱼的栖息地适宜性不会发生重大变化，但到本世纪末，我们预计它会显着下降并转移到切萨皮克湾口附近。我们的研究提供的证据表明，军曹鱼将有能力承受气候变化的近期影响，但它们的迁徙物候随着温度的变化而逐年变化。这些发现强调需要将鱼类与其环境之间的关系纳入渔业管理方式。该信息还可以帮助指导管理者决定渔业的时间安排和分配。