Several payments for environmental services (PES) schemes to promote large-scale afforestation are currently operational in New Zealand. In addition, the country has the only national greenhouse gas (GHG) Emissions Trading Scheme centred on forest carbon credits in the world. These market-based instruments are paramount in promoting the changes in land use required to achieve New Zealand’s GHG-emission targets under the Paris Agreement, as well as to pave the way towards the goal of a low-carbon economy by 2050. We estimated the impacts of PES schemes on the profitability of Pinus radiata forestry to identify low-productivity grasslands where afforestation is likely to financially offset the current land use (i.e., mainly sheep-and-beef farming), under the assumption of constant returns to scale. We find that even without PES, 56% of these agricultural lands present lower economic returns than forestry. When PES are considered, results suggest that, depending on the PES schemes and carbon prices, 77–100% of the low-productivity grassland areas could financially benefit from afforestation. If realized, afforestation of those lands could result in the long-term removal of 1.2–1.5 Pg CO₂ from the atmosphere.

新西兰目前正在实施若干项旨在促进大规模造林的环境服务付费方案。此外，该国拥有世界上唯一以森林碳信用额为中心的国家温室气体（GHG）排放交易计划。这些基于市场的手段对于促进实现《巴黎协定》所规定的新西兰温室气体排放目标所需的土地利用变化，以及为实现2050年低碳经济的目标铺平道路至关重要。养恤金计划对辐射松盈利能力的影响在规模收益不变的假设下，林业可以识别出低生产力的草原，在这些草原上，植树造林有可能在财务上抵消当前的土地使用（即主要是绵羊和牛肉种植）。我们发现，即使没有PES，这些耕地中56％的经济回报也比林业低。当考虑PES时，结果表明，根据PES计划和碳价格，低生产率草地地区的77-100％可以从造林中获得经济收益。如果意识到这一点，对这些土地进行植树造林可能会导致长期从大气中清除1.2–1.5 Pg CO ₂。