Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions,Environmental Health Perspectives

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Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions
Environmental Health Perspectives ( IF 10.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-10 , DOI: 10.1289/ehp6745
Jeremy J Hess ₁ , Nikhil Ranadive ₂ , Chris Boyer ₁ , Lukasz Aleksandrowicz ₃ , Susan C Anenberg ₄ , Kristin Aunan ₅ , Kristine Belesova _{6,

7} , Michelle L Bell ₈ , Sam Bickersteth ₉ , Kathryn Bowen ₁₀ , Marci Burden ₁ , Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum ₁₁ , Elizabeth Carlton ₁₂ , Guéladio Cissé _{13,

14} , Francois Cohen ₁₅ , Hancheng Dai _{16,

17} , Alan David Dangour ₇ , Purnamita Dasgupta ₁₈ , Howard Frumkin ₃ , Peng Gong ₁₉ , Robert J Gould ₂₀ , Andy Haines ₇ , Simon Hales ₂₁ , Ian Hamilton ₂₂ , Tomoko Hasegawa ₂₃ , Masahiro Hashizume _{24,

25} , Yasushi Honda ₂₆ , Daniel E Horton ₂₇ , Alexandra Karambelas ₂₈ , Ho Kim ₂₉ , Satbyul Estella Kim ₃₀ , Patrick L Kinney ₃₁ , Inza Kone _{32,

33} , Kim Knowlton ₃₄ , Jos Lelieveld ₃₅ , Vijay S Limaye ₃₄ , Qiyong Liu ₃₆ , Lina Madaniyazi _{25,

37} , Micaela Elvira Martinez _{38,

39} , Denise L Mauzerall ₄₀ , James Milner ₆ , Tara Neville ₄₁ , Mark Nieuwenhuijsen _{42,

43,

44} , Shonali Pachauri ₄₅ , Frederica Perera ₃₈ , Helen Pineo ₄₆ , Justin V Remais ₄₇ , Rebecca K Saari ₄₈ , Jon Sampedro ₄₉ , Pauline Scheelbeek _{7,

50} , Joel Schwartz ₅₁ , Drew Shindell ₅₂ , Priya Shyamsundar ₅₃ , Timothy J Taylor ₅₄ , Cathryn Tonne _{42,

43,

44} , Detlef Van Vuuren ₅₅ , Can Wang ₅₆ , Nicholas Watts ₅₇ , J Jason West ₅₈ , Paul Wilkinson ₆ , Stephen A Wood _{8,

59} , James Woodcock ₆₀ , Alistair Woodward ₆₁ , Yang Xie _{62,

63} , Ying Zhang ₆₄ , Kristie L Ebi ₁

Affiliation

Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Our Planet, Our Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway.
Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Rockefeller Foundation Economic Council on Planetary Health, Oxford, UK.
Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan.
Department of Environment Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, USA.
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.
University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Laboratory of Energy & Environmental Economics and Policy (LEEEP), College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Environmental and Resource Economics Unit, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India.
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA.
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York USA.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York, USA.
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Dept. of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Department of Paediatric Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki, Japan.
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
ISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain.
Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain.
CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK.
Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain.
Department of Epidemiology & Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Heath, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia USA.
European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, UK.
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands.
School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
Environmental Sciences & Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
The Nature Conservancy, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
School of Public Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Abstract

Background:

Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.

Objective:

The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.

Methods:

An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.

Results:

The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.

Discussion:

This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745

中文翻译：

气候变化减缓行动对健康影响的建模和报告指南

抽象的

背景：

模型表明，减缓气候变化的行动可以在当地迅速产生巨大的人类健康益处。记录这些好处可以帮助推动更加雄心勃勃和保护健康的气候变化缓解行动；然而，记录对健康的不利影响可以帮助避免它们。评估缓解（HEM）行动对健康的影响可以帮助政策制定者不仅根据缓解潜力，而且根据预期的健康效益来确定投资的优先顺序。然而，迄今为止，在制定和报告 HEM 估算时所采用的各种不兼容的方法限制了其对政策制定者的可比性和有用性。