This research examined whether an individual’s endorsement of punishment goals moderates and mediates the effect of a clinical assessment of recidivism risk on the length of prison sentences. We measured participants’ endorsement of punishment goals, both before they read a criminal case (i.e. a priori endorsement), and after they had read it (i.e. case-specific endorsement). As expected, the effect of the clinical report’s conclusion on participants’ sentencing decisions was moderated by a priori endorsement of incapacitation as a punishment goal. Participants who expressed strong (versus weak) a priori endorsement of this punishment goal were influenced by the report’s conclusion on the risk of recidivism. In addition, when the clinical report concluded that the offender had a high risk of recidivating, participants expressed greater case-specific motivation to incapacitate him. Finally, the clinical report’s conclusion had an indirect effect on the severity of the sentence through case-specific endorsement of the incapacitation punishment goal.

这项研究检查了个人对惩罚目标的认可是否会缓和和调解累犯风险临床评估对监禁刑期长度的影响。我们测量了参与者对惩罚目标的认可，包括在他们阅读刑事案件之前（即先验认可）和阅读之后（即特定案例认可）。正如预期的那样，临床报告的结论对参与者量刑决定的影响受到了先验认可作为惩罚目标的无行为能力的缓和。对这一惩罚目标表示强烈（相对于弱）先验支持的参与者受到报告关于累犯风险的结论的影响。此外，当临床报告得出的结论是罪犯有很高的再犯风险时，参与者表达了使他丧失能力的更大的具体案例动机。最后，临床报告的结论通过对失能惩罚目标的具体案例认可，间接影响了刑罚的严重程度。