Indigenous peoples are experiencing a wide range of negative impacts due to climate change and should have the right to determine for themselves how to adapt to these changes and define successful adaptation. These adaptations can then be culturally appropriate and grounded in Indigenous knowledge systems; however, the accelerating rate of change in social-ecological systems can be a challenge for traditional knowledge. Appropriate participatory modeling tools such as agent-based models (ABMs) may be of assistance to Indigenous groups in thinking through how systems may change in the future. Using the Zimbabwe Agro-Pastoral Management Model (a community-based ABM cocreated with farmer-researchers in Mazvihwa Communal Area), we explored how different definitions of sustainability affected the conclusions from the model, including average annual harvest and the persistence of resources (livestock, harvest, and woodland biomass) in the modeled system above minimum thresholds. For very low persistence thresholds, these two measures of success traded off against each other (with higher cropland proportions favoring harvest success and lower cropland proportions favoring persistence success); and different combinations of management interventions favored one or the other definition of sustainability. New insights came from community suggestions of higher persistence thresholds for livestock, crops, and woodland, whereby the model suggested that an intermediate proportion of cropland could be most successful. In all cases, higher year-to-year rainfall variation reduced sustainability success, regardless of the definition or thresholds used. Cocreating, cotesting, and coadaptation of the model and the use of multiple definitions rendered the findings more relevant for local application. The community in Mazvihwa has many ways to adapt to challenging circumstances, and local nongovernmental organization The Muonde Trust has used the model to work with local leaders to support collective action on land use planning to protect woodland from deforestation.

中文翻译：

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津巴布韦农牧系统中的土著气候适应主权：使用基于参与主体的模型探索可持续发展成功的定义

土著人民由于气候变化而遭受着各种各样的负面影响，因此应有权自行决定如何适应这些变化并确定成功的适应措施。这些改编可以在文化上适当，并以土著知识系统为基础；然而，社会生态系统变化的加速可能对传统知识构成挑战。适当的参与式建模工具（例如基于代理的模型（ABM））可能有助于土著群体思考未来系统的变化方式。使用津巴布韦的农牧业管理模型（与马兹维瓦社区地区的农民研究人员共同创建的基于社区的ABM），我们探索了可持续性的不同定义如何影响该模型的结论，包括建模系统中高于最低阈值的平均年收成和资源（牲畜，收成和林地生物量）的持久性。对于非常低的持久性阈值，这两种成功衡量标准相互取舍（较高的耕地比例有利于收成，而较低的耕地比例有利于持久性）；管理干预措施的不同组合有利于可持续性的定义。来自社区的关于牲畜，农作物和林地的持久性阈值更高的建议产生了新的见解，该模型表明，中等比例的农田可能是最成功的。在所有情况下，无论使用何种定义或阈值，较高的逐年降雨变化都会降低可持续性的成功率。共同创造，共同测试，模型的协同适应以及多种定义的使用，使调查结果与本地应用更加相关。马兹维瓦（Mazvihwa）社区有许多方法可以适应严峻的环境，当地的非政府组织Muonde Trust已使用该模型与当地领导人合作，支持针对土地使用规划的集体行动，以保护林地免受森林砍伐。