Near-miss events, which occur when failure is avoided by chance, can lead to subsequent risky decisions due to base-rate neglect. According to construal level theory, a lower level construal increases the neglect of base rates by giving more weight to case-specific information. In four studies, I empirically test the hypothesis that low-level construals moderate evaluations and decisions following near-miss events by increasing the reliance on case information. In Study 1, I find that a higher construal correlates with negative assessments of a project manager responsible for a near-miss incident. In Study 2, I prime participants to have a high- or low-level construal and find that the manager evaluations in the low construal group are higher than evaluations of those in the high construal group. In Study 3, I examine whether construal levels impact decision making in personal contexts regarding natural disasters and provide evidence for the underlying mechanism of base-rate neglect. In Study 4, I show that the construal levels affect decision making given that near-miss information extends to variations in the temporal distance to near-miss information. Thus, I find support that construal levels systematically influence evaluations and decision making following near-miss events.

中文翻译：

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未遂事件后的解释水平理论和风险决策

当偶然避免故障时发生的未遂事件可能会由于基本速率疏忽而导致随后的风险决策。根据解释水平理论，较低水平的解释通过给予特定案例信息更多的权重来增加对基本利率的忽视。在四项研究中，我通过增加对案例信息的依赖来实证检验以下假设，即低级别解释会在未遂事件后适度评估和决策。在研究 1 中，我发现较高的解释与对险些事故负责的项目经理的负面评估相关。在研究 2 中，我引导参与者进行高水平或低水平的解释，并发现低解释组的经理评价高于高解释组的经理评价。在研究 3 中，我研究了解释水平是否会影响个人环境中有关自然灾害的决策，并为基本利率忽视的潜在机制提供证据。在研究 4 中，我表明解释水平会影响决策制定，因为未遂信息扩展到与未遂信息的时间距离变化。因此，我发现支持解释水平系统地影响评估和决策制定接近未遂事件。