Is solar geoengineering ungovernable? A critical assessment of governance challenges identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,WIREs Climate Change

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Is solar geoengineering ungovernable? A critical assessment of governance challenges identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-11 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.690
Jesse L. Reynolds _{1,

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Affiliation

Solar radiation modification (SRM) could greatly reduce climate change and associated risks. Yet it has not been well‐received by the climate change expert community. This is evident in the authoritative reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which emphasize SRM's governance, political, social, and ethical challenges. I find seven such challenges identified in the IPCC reports: that SRM could lessen mitigation; that its termination would cause severe climatic impacts; that researching SRM would create a “slippery slope” to its inevitable and unwanted use; that decisions to use it could be contrary to democratic norms; that the public may not accept SRM; that it could be unethical; and that decisions to use SRM could be unilateral. After assessing the extent to which these challenges are supported by existing evidence, scholarly literature, and robust logic, I conclude that, for six of the seven, the IPCC's claims variously are speculative, fail to consider both advantages and disadvantages, implicitly make unreasonable negative assumptions, are contrary to existing evidence, and/or are meaninglessly vague. I suggest some reasons for the reports' failure to meet the IPCC's standards of balance, thoroughness, and accuracy, and recommend a dedicated Special Report on SRM.

中文翻译：

太阳能地球工程不可控制吗？政府间气候变化专门委员会确定的对治理挑战的关键评估

修改太阳辐射（SRM）可以大大减少气候变化和相关风险。但是，气候变化专家界并没有对此表示满意。在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的权威报告中可以明显看出这一点，该报告强调了SRM的治理，政治，社会和道德挑战。我在IPCC报告中发现了七个这样的挑战：SRM可以减少缓解；终止将造成严重的气候影响；研究SRM将为其不可避免和不必要的使用创造一个“滑坡”；使用它的决定可能违反民主规范；公众可能不接受SRM；这可能是不道德的；而且使用SRM的决定可能是单方面的。在评估现有证据支持这些挑战的程度之后，我得出的结论是，在学术文献和可靠的逻辑中，IPCC的主张中有六个是投机性的，未能同时考虑利弊，隐含地做出了不合理的否定假设，与现有证据相反，和/或毫无意义地含糊。我为报告未能达到IPCC的平衡，透彻和准确性标准提供了一些建议，并提出了一份专门的SRM特别报告。

更新日期：2020-11-11

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