Bioretention system (BS), a low impact development (LID) practice, is a natural and decentralized design implemented into the built environment for managing storm runoff widely. However, high uncertainties regarding the efficiency of BS over their life cycle may result in overestimates of the actual performance. Uncertainty of climate change may also limit the effectiveness of BSs. To provide BS that efficiently controls surface runoff, this study proposes a modeling method (General circulation models) for simulating the performances of BSs over its life cycle under a single climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). A case study in Guangzhou shows extreme storms are becoming more frequent but with shorter duration under a high-emissions scenario. The long-term efficiencies of BSs in reducing peak flow and runoff volume were examined during the simulated period in the Stormwater Management Model. Performance improved as the implementation area increased, but the marginal increase shrank. The overall efficiency of the BS fell as its structure aged and climate change worsened. BSs are effective for small rainfall events, with peak flow and runoff volume reduced by more than 75% by BSs covering more than 5% of the catchment area, given rainfall in the 0–25% percentile range. But many extreme storms may not be effectively mitigated (reduction of less than 25%), even with very large BS areas. Performance will be even more limited in the presence of highly impervious catchment. The modeling method and results of this study, which prescribe a holistic and dynamic consideration in evaluation of BS, can help improve decision support systems for LID planning.

生物滞留系统（BS）是一种低影响开发（LID）做法，是一种自然且分散的设计，已实施到建筑环境中以广泛管理暴雨径流。但是，有关BS整个生命周期效率的高度不确定性可能导致对实际性能的高估。气候变化的不确定性也可能会限制BS的有效性。为了提供能够有效控制地表径流的BS，本研究提出了一种建模方法（通用循环模型），用于在单个气候变化场景下（RCP 8.5）模拟BS在其生命周期内的性能。在广州进行的一项案例研究表明，在高排放情景下，极端风暴正变得越来越频繁，但持续时间较短。在模拟的时期内，在雨水管理模型中检查了BS减少峰值流量和径流量的长期效率。随着实施范围的扩大，性能有所提高，但边际增长却有所下降。BS的整体效率随着结构的老化和气候变化的恶化而下降。BS对于小雨量事件非常有效，在降雨范围为0％至25％的情况下，覆盖超过集水区5％的BS可使峰值流量和径流量减少75％以上。但是，即使具有非常大的BS区域，许多极端风暴也可能无法有效缓解（减少幅度小于25％）。在高度不透水的集水情况下，性能将受到更大的限制。这项研究的建模方法和结果规定了评估BS的整体和动态考虑因素，