This study aimed (1) to quantify the effects of positive status and vaccination practices for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), swine influenza virus (SIV) and Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (MHYO) on the profitability of farrow-to-finish pig farms and (2) to examine the financial impact of vaccination status in PRRSv and SIV positive farms. Data from 56 Irish farrow-to-finish pig farms were used for this study. Production effects associated with herd status for the three pathogens were incorporated into the Teagasc Pig Production Model (TPPM), a bio-economic stochastic simulation model for farrow-to-finish pig farms. In the analysis, farms negative (–) for either PRRSv, SIV or MHYO were assumed as baseline when presenting results for farms positive (+) for each pathogen. While all MHYO(+) farms used vaccination against the pathogen, not all PRRSv(+) or SIV(+) farms vaccinated against the disease. For all scenarios, a 728-sow farrow-to-finish farm with weekly farrowing batches was simulated. Financial risk analysis was conducted by Monte Carlo simulation within the TPPM using the Microsoft Excel add-in @Risk. Mortality rates, feedstuff costs and price per kg of meat produced were included as input stochastic variables and annual net profit was set as stochastic output variable. Positive farms sold fewer pigs and produced less kg of meat than negative farms and had increased feed usage during the weaner and finisher stages. Variable costs increased in positive farms due to increased feed costs, more dead animals for disposal and healthcare costs. Annual mean profit was lower by 24% in vaccinated PRRSv(+), 14.6% in unvaccinated PRRSv(+), 36.7% in vaccinating SIV(+), 12.8% in unvaccinated SIV(+), and 41% in MHYO(+) farms. Negative farms were first order stochastically dominant over positive farms, indicating that for a given level of profit, the financial risk is lower by avoiding respiratory pathogens. Similarly, unvaccinated farms were second order stochastically dominant over vaccinating farms suggesting that farms that do not vaccinate are less affected by the disease. Results from this study provide further evidence to encourage farmers to undertake improved disease control measures and/or to implement eradication programs.

本研究旨在 (1) 量化猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒 (PRRSv)、猪流感病毒 (SIV) 和猪肺炎支原体 (MHYO) 的阳性状态和疫苗接种实践对从产仔到育成猪场盈利能力的影响(2) 检查 PRRSv 和 SIV 阳性农场的疫苗接种状况对财务的影响。本研究使用了 56 个爱尔兰从产仔到育成猪场的数据。与三种病原体的猪群状况相关的生产影响被纳入 Teagasc 生猪生产模型 (TPPM)，这是一种用于从产仔到肥育猪场的生物经济随机模拟模型。在分析中，当呈现每种病原体阳性 (+) 农场的结果时，假定 PRRSv、SIV 或 MHYO 呈阴性 (-) 的农场作为基线。虽然所有 MHYO(+) 农场都接种了针对病原体的疫苗，但并非所有 PRRSv(+) 或 SIV(+) 农场都接种了针对该疾病的疫苗。对于所有场景，模拟了一个拥有 728 头母猪、每周产仔批次的产仔猪场。财务风险分析是使用 Microsoft Excel 插件 @Risk 在 TPPM 内通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行的。死亡率、饲料成本和每公斤肉类的价格被列为投入随机变量，年净利润被设置为随机产出变量。与阴性农场相比，阳性农场售出的猪较少，产肉量也较少，并且在断奶仔猪和肥育猪阶段增加了饲料用量。由于饲料成本增加、需要处理的死亡动物增多以及医疗保健成本，积极农场的可变成本增加。接种 PRRSv(+) 的年平均利润降低了 24%，未接种 PRRSv(+) 的年平均利润降低了 14.6%，接种 SIV(+) 的年平均利润降低了 36.7%，未接种 SIV(+) 的年平均利润降低了 12.8%，MHYO(+) 的年平均利润降低了 41%农场。 负农场比正农场在一阶随机上占主导地位，这表明对于给定的利润水平，通过避免呼吸道病原体可以降低财务风险。同样，未接种疫苗的农场比接种疫苗的农场具有二阶随机优势，这表明未接种疫苗的农场受疾病的影响较小。这项研究的结果提供了进一步的证据，鼓励农民采取改进的疾病控制措施和/或实施根除计划。