ABSTRACT This study presents a preliminary analysis of the productivity performance of a small group of mixed winter rainfall farms over the past decade. Results indicate that there has been no technical progress in the sector over the past decade and group members are falling further behind their own benchmark as time passes. Relative rankings have remained stable, with most of the group riding the peaks and troughs of good and bad years without breaking rank. There is clearly room for fresh thinking. Drought does not offer a simple explanation for the observed trends. This group’s total factor productivity is inversely correlated with farm size despite evidence that their technology is increasing returns-to-scale. This is difficult to explain. Woolled sheep seems to be the solution to drought, but too much land under planted pastures lowers overall efficiency. There is much more investigation to do, including to cast the net wider so that a more sophisticated efficiency model can be fitted. There was no information on heat stress or rainfall variability, or the date of adoption of conservation agriculture, which is known to be a good strategy against unreliable rainfall. We also could not model the effect of farmers’ skills and ambitions on their performance. The study’s main contribution is to debunk the myths that rainfall places an absolute limit on performance and that a larger scale of operation is always beneficial.

中文翻译：

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南非奥弗贝格冬季降雨边缘地区混合农业系统的效率，以及对可持续性思考的影响

摘要 本研究初步分析了过去十年间一小组冬季混合降雨农场的生产力表现。结果表明，过去十年该行业没有任何技术进步，随着时间的推移，小组成员进一步落后于他们自己的基准。相对排名一直保持稳定，大多数人都在经历了好坏年的高峰和低谷而没有打破排名。显然有新思维的空间。干旱并没有为观察到的趋势提供简单的解释。尽管有证据表明他们的技术正在增加规模报酬，但该群体的全要素生产率与农场规模成反比。这很难解释。羊毛羊似乎是解决干旱的办法，但种植牧场下的土地过多会降低整体效率。还有更多的调查要做，包括扩大网络范围，以便可以拟合更复杂的效率模型。没有关于热应激或降雨变化的信息，也没有关于采用保护性农业的日期的信息，众所周知，保护性农业是对抗不可靠降雨的好策略。我们也无法模拟农民的技能和抱负对其绩效的影响。该研究的主要贡献是揭穿降雨对性能施加绝对限制以及更大规模的运营总是有益的神话。或采用保护性农业的日期，这是众所周知的防止不可靠降雨的好策略。我们也无法模拟农民的技能和抱负对其绩效的影响。该研究的主要贡献是揭穿降雨对性能施加绝对限制以及更大规模的运营总是有益的神话。或采用保护性农业的日期，这是众所周知的防止不可靠降雨的好策略。我们也无法模拟农民的技能和抱负对其绩效的影响。该研究的主要贡献是揭穿降雨对性能施加绝对限制以及更大规模的运营总是有益的神话。