Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies,Ecology Letters

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Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-09 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13637
James P. Michielini ₁ , Erik B. Dopman ₁ , Elizabeth E. Crone ₁

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Phenological shifts are well‐documented in the ecological literature. However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is less clear. We used 27 years of citizen science monitoring to quantify trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species. We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from field trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late‐season generation, whereas other species appear to be adding a spring generation, revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results emphasise the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout species’ flight period and understanding the consequences for such climate‐related changes on viability or population dynamics.

中文翻译：

飞行时间的变化预测马萨诸塞州蝴蝶的数量趋势

生态学文献充分记录了物候变化。但是，它们对于人口统计学和丰度变化的意义尚不清楚。我们使用了27年的公民科学监测来量化89个蝶类的物候和相对丰度的趋势。我们使用分位数回归计算了物候变化，使用列表长度分析和实地考察计数计算了相对丰度变化。一年内活动时间延长是相对丰度增加的最强预测因子。这些变化可能部分是由Voltinism的变化驱动的，因为这种关系在多电压物种中更强。一些物种似乎增加了后期的世代，而另一些物种似乎增加了春季的世代，揭示了从无业游民到居住的可能转变。

更新日期：2021-01-11

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