Safety is always the first concern for a ship’s navigation in the Arctic. Ships navigating in the Arctic may face two main accident scenarios, i.e., getting stuck in the ice and ship-ice collision. More specifically, excessive speed may cause severe hull damage, while a very low speed may lead to a high probability of getting stuck in the ice. Based on this multi-risk perspective, an integrated risk assessment model was proposed to obtain the overall risk using the Bayesian Network (BN), in which the probabilities of accident occurrence and the severities of the possible consequences for ships getting stuck in the ice and for ship-ice collision could be estimated. Then, the voyage data collected from Yong Sheng’s Arctic sailing in 2013 were inputted into the integrated risk assessment model to perform a case study. A sensitivity analysis was performed to validate the proposed model and reveal the inherent mechanisms behind these two accidental scenarios. The proposed model can be applied to identify the safe speed for Arctic navigation under various ice conditions, a duty that is traditionally performed by well-trained crew members, but which entails too many uncertainties. The results can, to some extent, provide useful suggestions for navigators. They are imperative in supporting decision-making to shape the Arctic policy and to enhance the safety of Arctic shipping.

安全始终是北极航行的首要问题。在北极航行的船舶可能会遇到两种主要的事故情况，即被困在冰层和船冰碰撞中。更具体地说，过高的速度可能会严重损坏船体，而极低的速度可能会导致卡在冰上的可能性很高。基于这种多风险的观点，提出了一种综合的风险评估模型，以使用贝叶斯网络（BN）获得总体风险，其中事故发生的可能性以及船舶卡在冰层中的可能后果的严重性和严重性。可以估计出船冰碰撞。然后，将从永胜2013年的北极航行中收集的航行数据输入到综合风险评估模型中，以进行案例研究。进行了敏感性分析，以验证提出的模型并揭示这两种意外情况背后的内在机理。所提出的模型可以用于识别在各种冰层条件下北极航行的安全速度，这是传统上由受过良好训练的机组人员执行的职责，但存在太多不确定性。结果可以在某种程度上为导航员提供有用的建议。在支持制定决策以制定北极政策并提高北极运输安全性方面，它们势在必行。但这带来了太多的不确定性。结果可以在某种程度上为导航员提供有用的建议。在支持制定决策以制定北极政策并提高北极运输安全性方面，它们势在必行。但这带来了太多的不确定性。结果可以在某种程度上为导航员提供有用的建议。在支持制定决策以制定北极政策并提高北极运输安全性方面，它们势在必行。