For deep carbon emission reductions beyond decarbonization of the energy supply, among reduction streams, recycling-induced elimination of materially retained carbon (MRC) releases to the atmosphere have a great direct reduction potential. Moreover, the use of recycled materials indirectly avoids the manifestation of cradle-to-gate carbon footprints of virgin materials that would otherwise enter anthropogenic cycles. These facts have been individually revealed by preceding studies on lifecycle assessment of recycling technologies and carbon footprint accounting. However, the limited focus on specific wastes and technologies for recycling might narrow the range for the future development of recycling activities. This study comprehensively quantifies the carbon emission reduction potential of recycling activities through an input-output based material flow analysis. Here, we reveal the Japanese economy-wide potential emission savings, both direct (12.8 × 10⁶ t-CO₂) and indirect (17.5 × 10⁶ t-CO₂), that could have been achieved through maximal MRC recycling from households (i.e. post-consumer recycling) in 2011, outweighing potential energy recovery through waste incineration (3.1 × 10⁶ t-CO₂). Further, we found that incineration of plastic-containing products currently not covered by recycling laws is likely to cause 3.9 × 10⁶ t-CO₂ emission. These are first-order estimates of reduction potentials of post-consumer recycling encompassing the entire national economic structure. Energy-induced carbon emissions in recycling activities are excluded from these estimates, allowing for deduction of acceptable energy usage for recycling activities. The identified structures of direct and indirect reductions on value chains allow for efficiently directing the advancement of recycling technologies and policies toward the deep decarbonization of society.

对于除能源供应的脱碳之外的深层碳减排，在减排流中，循环诱导消除向大气释放的物质保留碳（MRC）释放具有巨大的直接减排潜力。此外，使用回收材料间接避免了原始材料从摇篮到大门的碳足迹的表现，否则这些碳足迹将进入人为循环。这些事实已通过先前有关回收技术的生命周期评估和碳足迹核算的研究单独揭示。但是，对特定废物和回收技术的关注有限，可能会缩小回收活动未来发展的范围。这项研究通过基于投入产出的物质流分析全面量化了回收活动的碳减排潜力。在这里，我们揭示了日本经济范围内潜在的排放节省，两者都是直接的（12.8×10⁶ t-CO ₂）和间接（17.5×10 ⁶ t-CO ₂），这可以通过在2011年从家庭中进行最大的MRC回收（即消费后回收）来实现，超过了通过垃圾焚化的潜在能源回收（3.1× 10 ⁶ t-CO ₂）。此外，我们发现，焚化目前未纳入回收法的塑料产品很可能会导致3.9×10 ⁶ t-CO ₂排放。这些是涵盖整个国家经济结构的消费后回收减少潜力的一级估算。这些估算中不包括回收活动中由能源引起的碳排放，从而可以扣除回收活动中可接受的能源使用量。确定的价值链上直接和间接减少的结构可以有效地将回收技术和政策的发展导向社会的深度脱碳。