This paper investigates the energy system of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) to highlight, through a scenario analysis, its possible future development in compliance with the European Commission's long-term vision. The IEA-ETSAP methodology was utilized to model and analyse the Basilicata energy system in a business-as-usual scenario, based on the assumptions of the 2010 Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Plan, and in two low-carbon scenarios, decarbonisation and high energy efficiency, which, in line with the long-term European strategy, foresee an 85% carbon dioxide emission reduction and a 20% energy efficiency increase in 2050. The results highlight that electricity production from renewable energy sources (in particular wind energy), strongly supported by the regional policy, goes beyond the Basilicata Regional Energy-Environmental Plan forecast, with a further increase in the decarbonisation scenarios. In addition, solar thermal and highly efficient technologies are adopted in commercial and residential end-use sectors. An additional 9% reduction in energy consumption is achieved in the high energy efficiency scenario by passive houses. The proposed approach shows the usefulness of a modelling framework typically used for national and supranational analyses to support regional authorities in their decision-making process to obtain results in line with the European and national strategies. Application to the Basilicata region shows the usefulness of a consolidated framework for policy assessment at a local scale to assess regional contribution to the achievement of national climate mitigation targets that tend towards climate neutrality.

本文对巴斯利卡塔地区（意大利南部）的能源系统进行了调查，以通过情景分析突出显示其符合欧洲委员会长期愿景的未来可能发展。的IEA-ETSAP方法被利用来建模和在某业务分析巴西利卡塔能量系统如-通常情景，基于2010年《区域能源与环境政策计划》的假设，在两种低碳情景下，脱碳和高能效（根据欧洲的长期战略）预计二氧化碳含量将达到85％到2050年，减排和20％的能源效率将提高。结果表明，在区域政策的大力支持下，可再生能源（特别是风能）的电力生产超出了《巴西利卡塔区域能源环境计划》的预测，进一步脱碳情景的增加。另外，在商业和住宅最终用途部门中采用了太阳能热和高效技术。在高能效方案中，被动房屋可将能耗进一步降低9％。拟议的方法显示了通常用于国家和超国家分析的建模框架的有用性，以支持区域当局的决策过程以获得符合欧洲和国家战略的结果。在巴斯利卡塔地区的应用表明，在地方规模上建立一个综合的政策评估框架很有用，以评估区域对实现趋向于气候中和的国家减缓气候变化目标的贡献。