Climate change affects biodiversity in various ways but not linearly. Mountaintop species and ecosystems are expected to experience the strongest impacts of climate change. Lower tolerances to changes in habitat and decreased available surface area with increasing elevation should lead to smaller ranges and even extinctions of endemic species living on mountaintops. Thus, the potential impacts of climate change must be understood in order to achieve sound and long-lasting conservation and management of mountaintops. We evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation status of ten endemic bird species of eastern Brazil mountaintops based on ecological niche models. The models predicted a gradual reduction of suitable area for all species with a projected contraction of up to 94%, upwards shifts from 1039 to 1470 m in elevation, and range shifts from 7 to 373 km for 2070. Five groups of mountainous regions are highlighted as crucial for the current conservation of endemic birds. If these projections materialize, nine species of birds should be recognized as being under some level of threat. To diminish these effects, public policies and land conversion at local and regional scales and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed.

气候变化以各种方式影响生物多样性，但不是线性的。预计山顶物种和生态系统将受到气候变化的最大影响。对生境变化的较低容忍度以及随着海拔的升高而减少的可用表面积将导致较小的范围，甚至导致生活在山顶上的特有物种灭绝。因此，必须了解气候变化的潜在影响，以实现对山顶的良好而持久的保护和管理。我们基于生态位模型评估了气候变化对巴西东部山顶十种特有鸟类物种分布和保护状况的潜在影响。这些模型预测所有物种的合适面积都会逐渐减少，预计收缩率最高可达94％，到2070年，海拔从1039上升到1470 m，范围从7到373 km。突出显示了五类山区对当前特有鸟类的保护至关重要。如果这些预测得以实现，那么应该认识到九种鸟类在某种程度上受到威胁。为了减少这些影响，迫切需要公共政策和地方和区域规模的土地转换以及全球减少温室气体排放。