It is now well accepted that global greenhouse gas emissions will result in drastic changes in climate and patterns of natural disasters such as wildfires in Canada and across the globe. This study quantifies potential future changes in wildfire regimes around 11 Canadian cities with high socio-economic value and historically exposed with low to high wildfire hazard. Changes in extreme wildfire weather and behavior are calculated under 2 and 3.5 °C of global warming with reference to a baseline historical time-period of 1989–2019. Results provide statistically significant evidence of an extended wildfire season and more frequent weather conducive for wildfires around the cities. This will result in more intense wildfires with higher head fire intensities surrounding all cities. The city of Nelson (British Columbia) is found to exhibit highest wildfire magnitudes in both historical and future climates. The city of Thunder Bay (Ontario) is projected with most significant increases in the occurrence frequencies of extreme wildfires where 50-year HFI events are projected to become 18-year and 9-year return period events under 2 and 3.5 °C of global warming respectively. A statistically significant evidence of an increasing numbers of future wildfire events requiring significant suppression resources is also found. Results highlight the need for adapting buildings and infrastructure in the cities in the face of projected future changes in wildfires.

现在已经被公认，全球温室气体排放将导致气候和自然灾害模式的急剧变化，例如加拿大乃至全球的野火。这项研究量化了加拿大11个具有较高社会经济价值并且历史上暴露程度低至高的山火危险的城市附近山火政权未来可能发生的变化。参照1989-2019年的基线历史时间段，在全球变暖2和3.5°C下计算了极端野火天气和行为的变化。结果提供了具有统计意义的证据，表明野火季节延长，天气更加频繁，有利于城市周围的野火。这将导致更猛烈的野火，所有城市的头顶烈度更高。尼尔森市（不列颠哥伦比亚省）在历史和未来气候中均表现出最高的野火强度。预计雷霆湾市（安大略省）极端野火的发生频率将有最显着的增加，其中在全球变暖2和3.5°C下，50年HFI事件预计将变成18年和9年回归期事件。分别。还发现了统计上的重要证据，表明未来需要增加大量抑制资源的野火事件越来越多。结果表明，面对预计未来的野火变化，有必要对城市的建筑物和基础设施进行改造。预计雷霆湾市（安大略省）极端野火的发生频率将有最显着的增加，其中在全球变暖2和3.5°C下，50年HFI事件预计将变成18年和9年回归期事件。分别。还发现了统计上的重要证据，表明未来需要增加大量抑制资源的野火事件越来越多。结果表明，面对预计未来的野火变化，有必要对城市的建筑物和基础设施进行改造。预计雷霆湾市（安大略省）极端野火的发生频率将有最显着的增加，其中在全球变暖2和3.5°C下，50年HFI事件预计将变成18年和9年回归期事件。分别。还发现了统计上的重要证据，表明未来需要增加大量抑制资源的野火事件越来越多。结果表明，面对预计未来的野火变化，有必要对城市的建筑物和基础设施进行改造。