Phylogeography can reconstruct historical evolutionary processes by comparing historical patterns of gene flow, divergence among species and by using species distribution models (SDM) upon geographic distribution. We investigate the phylogeographic patterns of Anatolian brown frogs including R. macrocnemis and R. tavasensis as well as the Hyrcanian brown frog, R. pseudodalmatina, using a fragment of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene for 145 specimens across the entire range of these frogs. We calculate parameters of molecular diversity, such as the number of variable sites (S), the number of haplotypes (h), haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (π). We generated a haplotype network and used three methods (Neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots) to reconstruct the demographic histories of R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Finally, we used SDMs to predict the habitat suitability for three periods: The Present Day, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future until 2070 for R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Our phylogenetic analyses support a late Miocene origin of Anatolian and Hyrcanian lineages. Hyrcanian brown frogs were enclosed in lowlands of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea after the uplift of the Elburz range and the Armenian plateau. The formation of a salinity belt from the north Aegean corridor (the south western Turkey) to northward during the Late Tortonian led to the subdivision of ancestor of the Anatolian lineage into today isolated western and eastern populations. The salinity belt had a considerable impact on the divergence of R. tavasensis from R. macrocnemis. Combined historical demographic analyses and SDMs revealed a rapid expansion occurring during the Pleistocene in R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Currently, suitable habitat for R. macrocnemis has declined compared to the LGM, and the species is predicted to do even worse under future climatic conditions. In contrast, R. pseudodalmatina found suitable habitat from the LGM to present within its restricted distribution area; it is predicted to do fine even under future climate.

中文翻译：

---

不平等姐妹——安纳托利亚和希尔卡尼亚棕蛙过去和未来潜在的范围发展

系统地理学可以通过比较基因流动的历史模式、物种之间的差异以及根据地理分布使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 来重建历史进化过程。我们使用线粒体 16S rRNA 基因的片段研究了包括 R. macrocnemis 和 R. tavasensis 在内的安纳托利亚棕色青蛙的系统地理学模式，以及这些青蛙的整个范围内的 145 个标本的线粒体 16S rRNA 基因片段。我们计算分子多样性的参数，例如可变位点的数量 (S)、单倍型的数量 (h)、单倍型的多样性 (Hd) 和核苷酸多样性 (π)。我们生成了一个单倍型网络，并使用了三种方法（中性检验、错配分布和贝叶斯天际线图）来重建 R. macrocnemis 和 R. 的人口统计历史。伪海藻。最后，我们使用 SDM 来预测三个时期的栖息地适宜性：现在、末次盛冰期 (LGM) 和直到 2070 年的 R. macrocnemis 和 R. pseudodalmatina。我们的系统发育分析支持 Anatolian 和 Hyrcanian 谱系的晚中新世起源。在厄尔布尔士山脉和亚美尼亚高原隆起后，希尔卡尼亚棕蛙被圈在里海南部海岸的低地。在托尔托阶晚期，从爱琴海走廊（土耳其西南部）向北形成的盐分带导致安纳托利亚世系的祖先细分为今天孤立的西部和东部种群。盐度带对 R. tavasensis 与 R. macrocnemis 的分化有相当大的影响。结合历史人口统计分析和 SDM 揭示了在更新世 R. macrocnemis 和 R. pseudodalmatina 中发生的快速扩张。目前，与 LGM 相比，R. macrocnemis 的适宜栖息地已经下降，预计该物种在未来的气候条件下会变得更糟。相比之下，R. pseudodalmatina 从 LGM 中找到了合适的栖息地，以存在于其限制分布区域内；预计即使在未来的气候条件下也能表现良好。