Abstract Forest ecosystems are notably influenced by: 1) the rate and spatial distribution of forest land development, and 2) how remaining undeveloped forest lands are managed. Regarding this second factor, economics and ecology research conducted in different locations in the U.S. suggests that increasing housing development can reduce the profitability of commercial timber production and thus the intensity with which landowners manage their forest lands. Some studies, however, suggest that in some locations these effects are not evident. We sought to consider what contextual factors might influence where and when development effects on forest management might become evident. We began with a critical review and synthesis of existing research addressing the degree to which housing development influences private forest management. We followed that with an empirical (logit) analysis of the likelihood of “active” (e.g., thinning) and extractive (e.g., harvesting) management on nonindustrial private forest lands in Oregon and Washington (U.S.), as a function of stand, site, and other factors, including nearby housing development. From our review and synthesis of previous research literature, we conclude that the varying results of previous studies likely owe to a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic contextual factors that influence both how prevalent development impacts might be in different locations and how easily they can be observed in empirical analyses. The results of our analysis of active and extractive management in Oregon and Washington are largely consistent with this finding, with some regions showing statistically significant negative effects owing to housing development, and other regions remaining largely unaffected. We conclude that policymakers and managers need to consider the biophysical and socioeconomic context of different study areas when evaluating the implications of individual study results.

中文翻译：

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评估住房开发对美国剩余私有森林管理影响的经验证据

摘要 森林生态系统受到以下因素的显着影响：1) 林地开发的速度和空间分布，以及 2) 如何管理剩余的未开发林地。关于第二个因素，在美国不同地区进行的经济学和生态学研究表明，增加住房开发会降低商业木材生产的盈利能力，从而降低土地所有者管理林地的强度。然而，一些研究表明，在某些地方，这些影响并不明显。我们试图考虑哪些背景因素可能会影响森林管理的发展影响可能在何时何地变得明显。我们首先对现有研究进行了批判性审查和综合，以解决住房开发对私人森林管理的影响程度。我们随后对俄勒冈州和华盛顿州（美国）的非工业私有林地进行“主动”（例如，间伐）和采掘（例如，采伐）管理的可能性进行了实证（logit）分析，作为林分、场地的函数，以及其他因素，包括附近的住房开发。根据我们对先前研究文献的回顾和综合，我们得出结论，先前研究的不同结果可能归因于生物物理和社会经济背景因素的组合，这些因素影响了不同地点的普遍发展影响以及在实证分析。我们对俄勒冈州和华盛顿州积极和采掘式管理的分析结果与这一发现基本一致，由于住房开发，一些地区在统计上显示出显着的负面影响，而其他地区则基本不受影响。我们得出的结论是，在评估个别研究结果的影响时，政策制定者和管理者需要考虑不同研究领域的生物物理和社会经济背景。