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Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets
Science ( IF 44.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-05 , DOI: 10.1126/science.aba7357
Michael A. Clark 1 , Nina G. G. Domingo 2 , Kimberly Colgan 2 , Sumil K. Thakrar 2 , David Tilman 3, 4 , John Lynch 5 , Inês L. Azevedo 6, 7 , Jason D. Hill 2
Affiliation  

Thought for food To have any hope of meeting the central goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to 2°C or less, our carbon emissions must be reduced considerably, including those coming from agriculture. Clark et al. show that even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated immediately, emissions from the global food system alone would make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C and difficult even to realize the 2°C target. Thus, major changes in how food is produced are needed if we want to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Science, this issue p. 705 Concerted efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from food production are necessary to limit increases in global temperature. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5° or 2°C above preindustrial levels requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Although reducing emissions from fossil fuels is essential for meeting this goal, other sources of emissions may also preclude its attainment. We show that even if fossil fuel emissions were immediately halted, current trends in global food systems would prevent the achievement of the 1.5°C target and, by the end of the century, threaten the achievement of the 2°C target. Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and ambitious changes to food systems as well as to all nonfood sectors. The 2°C target could be achieved with less-ambitious changes to food systems, but only if fossil fuel and other nonfood emissions are eliminated soon.

中文翻译:

全球粮食系统排放可能妨碍实现 1.5°C 和 2°C 气候变化目标

食物思想 为了实现《巴黎协定》的中心目标,即将全球变暖限制在 2°C 或更低,我们必须大幅减少碳排放,包括来自农业的碳排放。克拉克等人。表明即使立即消除化石燃料排放,仅来自全球粮食系统的排放也无法将升温限制在 1.5°C,甚至难以实现 2°C 的目标。因此,如果我们想实现《巴黎协定》的目标,就需要对食物的生产方式进行重大改变。科学,这个问题 p。705 必须齐心协力减少粮食生产中的温室气体排放,以限制全球气温上升。《巴黎协定》的目标是将全球气温上升幅度限制在 1。比工业化前水平高 5° 或 2°C 需要迅速减少温室气体排放。尽管减少化石燃料的排放对于实现这一目标至关重要,但其他排放源也可能妨碍其实现。我们表明,即使立即停止化石燃料排放,全球粮食系统的当前趋势也将阻碍 1.5°C 目标的实现,并在本世纪末威胁到 2°C 目标的实现。实现 1.5°C 的目标需要对粮食系统以及所有非粮食部门进行快速而雄心勃勃的变革。可以通过对粮食系统进行不那么雄心勃勃的改变来实现 2°C 的目标,但前提是尽快消除化石燃料和其他非粮食排放。其他排放源也可能妨碍其实现。我们表明,即使立即停止化石燃料排放,全球粮食系统的当前趋势也将阻碍 1.5°C 目标的实现,并在本世纪末威胁到 2°C 目标的实现。实现 1.5°C 的目标需要对粮食系统以及所有非粮食部门进行快速而雄心勃勃的变革。可以通过对粮食系统进行不那么雄心勃勃的改变来实现 2°C 的目标,但前提是尽快消除化石燃料和其他非粮食排放。其他排放源也可能妨碍其实现。我们表明,即使立即停止化石燃料排放,全球粮食系统的当前趋势也将阻碍 1.5°C 目标的实现,并在本世纪末威胁到 2°C 目标的实现。实现 1.5°C 的目标需要对粮食系统以及所有非粮食部门进行快速而雄心勃勃的变革。可以通过对粮食系统进行不那么雄心勃勃的改变来实现 2°C 的目标,但前提是尽快消除化石燃料和其他非粮食排放。5°C 目标要求对粮食系统以及所有非粮食部门进行快速而雄心勃勃的变革。可以通过对粮食系统进行不那么雄心勃勃的改变来实现 2°C 的目标,但前提是尽快消除化石燃料和其他非粮食排放。5°C 目标要求对粮食系统以及所有非粮食部门进行快速而雄心勃勃的变革。可以通过对粮食系统进行不那么雄心勃勃的改变来实现 2°C 的目标,但前提是尽快消除化石燃料和其他非粮食排放。
更新日期:2020-11-05
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