Abstract As global warming continues, the melting rate of Arctic glaciers is further accelerated, which provides favorable conditions for the development of the Arctic's abundant resources, shipping, and ecological research. Accordingly, Russia, as the country with the longest Arctic coastline, has promulgated a series of policies and guidelines which aimed at the development of the Arctic region and the revitalization of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). By strengthening infrastructure construction, reducing port dues, and improving handling efficiency to promote the development of ports along theNSR and also to gives full play to the transportation potential of NSR, which is an inherent need for the development of Russian Arctic region. However, how Russia's Arctic strategy may affect port development along the NSR and whether the Russian arctic strategy can promote the development of ports along the NSR remain to be investigated. This study, based on the multi-source data, uses the difference-in-difference (DID) method to estimate the impact of Russia's Arctic strategy on the development of ports along the NSR. The results from this study indicate that Russia's Arctic strategy has failed to promote the development of ports along the NSR during 2003–2012, and the growth of port cargo throughput is overly reliant on energy exploitation. All of our preliminary results throw light on the nature of the impact of Russia's Arctic strategy on the development of ports along the NSR.

中文翻译：

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北海航线的北极政策和港口开发：来自俄罗斯北极战略的证据

摘要 随着全球变暖的持续，北极冰川的融化速度进一步加快，这为北极丰富的资源、航运和生态研究的发展提供了有利条件。据此，俄罗斯作为北极海岸线最长的国家，出台了一系列旨在开发北极地区和振兴北方航道的政策和方针。通过加强基础设施建设，降低港口费用，提高装卸效率，促进北海沿岸港口的发展，同时充分发挥北海航线的运输潜力，这是俄罗斯北极地区发展的内在需要。然而，俄罗斯如何 北极战略可能会影响北海沿岸港口的发展，俄罗斯北极战略是否能够促进北海沿岸港口的发展还有待研究。本研究基于多源数据，采用差值法（DID）估算俄罗斯北极战略对北海航线港口发展的影响。本研究结果表明，2003-2012年俄罗斯北极战略未能推动北海沿岸港口的发展，港口货物吞吐量的增长过度依赖能源开发。我们所有的初步结果都揭示了俄罗斯北极战略对 NSR 沿线港口发展影响的性质。基于多源数据，采用差值法（DID）估算俄罗斯北极战略对北海沿岸港口发展的影响。本研究结果表明，2003-2012年俄罗斯北极战略未能推动北海沿岸港口的发展，港口货物吞吐量的增长过度依赖能源开发。我们所有的初步结果都揭示了俄罗斯北极战略对 NSR 沿线港口发展影响的性质。基于多源数据，采用差值法（DID）估算俄罗斯北极战略对北海沿岸港口发展的影响。本研究结果表明，2003-2012年俄罗斯北极战略未能推动北海沿岸港口的发展，港口货物吞吐量的增长过度依赖能源开发。我们所有的初步结果都揭示了俄罗斯北极战略对 NSR 沿线港口发展影响的性质。2003-2012年间，北极战略未能推动沿线港口的发展，港口货物吞吐量的增长过度依赖能源开发。我们所有的初步结果都揭示了俄罗斯北极战略对 NSR 沿线港口发展影响的性质。2003-2012年间，北极战略未能推动沿线港口的发展，港口货物吞吐量的增长过度依赖能源开发。我们所有的初步结果都揭示了俄罗斯北极战略对 NSR 沿线港口发展影响的性质。