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Decarbonising the transport and energy sectors: Technical feasibility and socioeconomic impacts in Costa Rica
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 7.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100573
Guido Godínez-Zamora , Luis Victor-Gallardo , Jam Angulo-Paniagua , Eunice Ramos , Mark Howells , Will Usher , Felipe De León , Andrea Meza , Jairo Quirós-Tortós

Compliance with the Paris Agreement requires the transformation of national economies to meet net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century. To accomplish this, countries need to define long-term decarbonisation strategies with near- and mid-term actions to determine their ideal future scenario while maximizing socioeconomic benefits. This paper describes the process followed to support the creation of the decarbonisation pathway for the transport and energy sectors presented in Costa Rica's National Decarbonisation Plan. We discuss in detail the technological pathway of a deep-decarbonisation future that supports reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, our results show that the decarbonisation pathway can lead to emissions' reduction of 87% in the transport and energy sectors by 2050. Energy efficiency, the adoption of electromobility, modal-shift towards public transport and active mobility, as well as reduced demand due to digitalisation and teleworking, are found to be key drivers towards the deep-decarbonisation. These measures combined enable a 25% reduction of primary energy production by 2050. The results highlight that the decarbonisation scenario requires installing 4.4 GW more of renewable power plants by 2050, compared to the BAU scenario (80%). We also show that additional investments for the deep-decarbonisation are compensated with the reduced operating cost. Crucially, we found that the National Decarbonisation Plan results in a lower total discounted cost of about 35% of current Costa Rica's GDP, indicating that a deep decarbonisation is technically feasible and is coupled to socioeconomic benefits.



中文翻译:

使运输和能源部门脱碳:哥斯达黎加的技术可行性和社会经济影响

遵守《巴黎协定》要求国民经济转型,以在本世纪中叶之前实现二氧化碳净零排放。为了实现这一目标,各国需要通过近期和中期行动来制定长期脱碳战略,以确定理想的未来方案,同时最大限度地提高社会经济效益。本文描述了支持哥斯达黎加《国家脱碳计划》中提出的为运输和能源部门创建脱碳途径的过程。我们详细讨论了深度脱碳的未来的技术途径,该技术途径将支持到2050年实现净零排放。与通常的情况(BAU)相比,我们的结果表明,脱碳途径可以减少排放量。到2050年,运输和能源领域的比例将达到87%。能源效率,采用电动汽车,向公共交通的模式转变和主动出行以及数字化和远程办公带来的需求减少,被认为是实现深度脱碳的关键动力。这些措施相结合,到2050年可使一次能源生产减少25%。结果表明,脱碳情景要求到2050年与BAU情景(80%)相比,安装更多的4.4 GW可再生能源电厂。我们还表明,通过降低运营成本可以补偿用于深度脱碳的其他投资。至关重要的是,我们发现《国家脱碳计划》的总折现成本较低,约为哥斯达黎加当前GDP的35%,这表明深度脱碳在技术上是可行的,并且会带来社会经济利益。

更新日期:2020-11-06
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