Currently, SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a major worldwide public-health problem. Here, its propagation is modeled by using a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA). In this model, sick individuals can either remain asymptomatic during the infection or become symptomatic. In order to derive an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number R 0 , a mean-field approximation written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE) is proposed and analyzed. By considering time-constant and time-varying parameters in both approaches (PCA and ODE), numerical simulations are performed in order to evaluate the impact of distinct quarantine regimes on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

中文翻译：

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SARS-CoV-2在隔离下的传播：基于概率元胞自动机的研究

目前，SARS-CoV-2（严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2）是一个主要的全球公共卫生问题。在这里，它的传播是通过使用概率元胞自动机 (PCA) 来建模的。在这个模型中，生病的人要么在感染期间保持无症状，要么出现症状。为了导出基本再生数 R 0 的解析表达式，提出并分析了用常微分方程 (ODE) 编写的平均场近似。通过考虑两种方法（PCA 和 ODE）中的时间常数和时变参数，进行数值模拟以评估不同检疫制度对 SARS-CoV-2 大流行的影响。