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The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
Climate of the Past ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-04 , DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020
Alan M. Haywood , Julia C. Tindall , Harry J. Dowsett , Aisling M. Dolan , Kevin M. Foley , Stephen J. Hunter , Daniel J. Hill , Wing-Le Chan , Ayako Abe-Ouchi , Christian Stepanek , Gerrit Lohmann , Deepak Chandan , W. Richard Peltier , Ning Tan , Camille Contoux , Gilles Ramstein , Xiangyu Li , Zhongshi Zhang , Chuncheng Guo , Kerim H. Nisancioglu , Qiong Zhang , Qiang Li , Youichi Kamae , Mark A. Chandler , Linda E. Sohl , Bette L. Otto-Bliesner , Ran Feng , Esther C. Brady , Anna S. von der Heydt , Michiel L. J. Baatsen , Daniel J. Lunt

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 C over land and 2.8 C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 N and 60 S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

中文翻译:

上新世模式比对项目第二阶段:大规模气候特征和气候敏感性

上新世时代具有很大的潜力,可以使我们更好地理解大气中的CO 2浓度接近百万分之400的体积对长期气候和环境的影响。在这里,我们介绍了上新世气候的大规模特征,该新特征是通过基于复杂的边界条件的新重建(上新世模型比对项目第二阶段; PlioMIP2)的具有不同复杂性和空间分辨率的新气候模型集合来模拟的。作为全球年平均数,模拟的地表气温相对于工业化前时代增加了1.7至 5.2∘C,多模式平均值为 3.2∘CC.年平均总降水量增加7%(范围:2%–13%)。平均而言,由4.3表面空气温度(SAT)的增加 土地C和2.8  下在海洋。有一个清晰的极性放大模式,其极地暖分别为60∘N 和60∘S  ,比全球平均升温高2.3倍。在大西洋和太平洋,子午温度梯度减小,而热带纬向梯度基本保持不变。与CO 2倍增相关的模型的气候响应之间存在统计上的显着关系(平衡气候敏感性; ECS)及其模拟的上新世表面温度响应。整体地球系统对CO 2倍增(包括冰盖反馈)的响应比ECS大67%;这比从PlioMIP1集成获得的47%的增长要大。上新世海洋表面温度的代理衍生估计被用来评估ECS的模型估计值,并给2.6-4.8的范围ECS  C.该结果与ECS基本一致范围由以前的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)呈现评估报告。
更新日期:2020-11-04
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