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The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
Climate of the Past ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-04 , DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 Alan M. Haywood , Julia C. Tindall , Harry J. Dowsett , Aisling M. Dolan , Kevin M. Foley , Stephen J. Hunter , Daniel J. Hill , Wing-Le Chan , Ayako Abe-Ouchi , Christian Stepanek , Gerrit Lohmann , Deepak Chandan , W. Richard Peltier , Ning Tan , Camille Contoux , Gilles Ramstein , Xiangyu Li , Zhongshi Zhang , Chuncheng Guo , Kerim H. Nisancioglu , Qiong Zhang , Qiang Li , Youichi Kamae , Mark A. Chandler , Linda E. Sohl , Bette L. Otto-Bliesner , Ran Feng , Esther C. Brady , Anna S. von der Heydt , Michiel L. J. Baatsen , Daniel J. Lunt
Climate of the Past ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-04 , DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 Alan M. Haywood , Julia C. Tindall , Harry J. Dowsett , Aisling M. Dolan , Kevin M. Foley , Stephen J. Hunter , Daniel J. Hill , Wing-Le Chan , Ayako Abe-Ouchi , Christian Stepanek , Gerrit Lohmann , Deepak Chandan , W. Richard Peltier , Ning Tan , Camille Contoux , Gilles Ramstein , Xiangyu Li , Zhongshi Zhang , Chuncheng Guo , Kerim H. Nisancioglu , Qiong Zhang , Qiang Li , Youichi Kamae , Mark A. Chandler , Linda E. Sohl , Bette L. Otto-Bliesner , Ran Feng , Esther C. Brady , Anna S. von der Heydt , Michiel L. J. Baatsen , Daniel J. Lunt
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our
understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per
million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene
climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying
complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of
boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2;
PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures
increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era
with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total
precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
中文翻译:
上新世模式比对项目第二阶段:大规模气候特征和气候敏感性
上新世时代具有很大的潜力,可以使我们更好地理解大气中的CO 2浓度接近百万分之400的体积对长期气候和环境的影响。在这里,我们介绍了上新世气候的大规模特征,该新特征是通过基于复杂的边界条件的新重建(上新世模型比对项目第二阶段; PlioMIP2)的具有不同复杂性和空间分辨率的新气候模型集合来模拟的。作为全球年平均数,模拟的地表气温相对于工业化前时代增加了1.7至 5.2∘C,多模式平均值为 3.2∘CC.年平均总降水量增加7%(范围:2%–13%)。平均而言,由4.3表面空气温度(SAT)的增加 ∘土地C和2.8 ∘下在海洋。有一个清晰的极性放大模式,其极地暖分别为60∘N 和60∘S ,比全球平均升温高2.3倍。在大西洋和太平洋,子午温度梯度减小,而热带纬向梯度基本保持不变。与CO 2倍增相关的模型的气候响应之间存在统计上的显着关系(平衡气候敏感性; ECS)及其模拟的上新世表面温度响应。整体地球系统对CO 2倍增(包括冰盖反馈)的响应比ECS大67%;这比从PlioMIP1集成获得的47%的增长要大。上新世海洋表面温度的代理衍生估计被用来评估ECS的模型估计值,并给2.6-4.8的范围ECS ∘ C.该结果与ECS基本一致范围由以前的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)呈现评估报告。
更新日期:2020-11-04
中文翻译:
上新世模式比对项目第二阶段:大规模气候特征和气候敏感性
上新世时代具有很大的潜力,可以使我们更好地理解大气中的CO 2浓度接近百万分之400的体积对长期气候和环境的影响。在这里,我们介绍了上新世气候的大规模特征,该新特征是通过基于复杂的边界条件的新重建(上新世模型比对项目第二阶段; PlioMIP2)的具有不同复杂性和空间分辨率的新气候模型集合来模拟的。作为全球年平均数,模拟的地表气温相对于工业化前时代增加了1.7至 5.2∘C,多模式平均值为 3.2∘CC.年平均总降水量增加7%(范围:2%–13%)。平均而言,由4.3表面空气温度(SAT)的增加 ∘土地C和2.8 ∘下在海洋。有一个清晰的极性放大模式,其极地暖分别为60∘N 和60∘S ,比全球平均升温高2.3倍。在大西洋和太平洋,子午温度梯度减小,而热带纬向梯度基本保持不变。与CO 2倍增相关的模型的气候响应之间存在统计上的显着关系(平衡气候敏感性; ECS)及其模拟的上新世表面温度响应。整体地球系统对CO 2倍增(包括冰盖反馈)的响应比ECS大67%;这比从PlioMIP1集成获得的47%的增长要大。上新世海洋表面温度的代理衍生估计被用来评估ECS的模型估计值,并给2.6-4.8的范围ECS ∘ C.该结果与ECS基本一致范围由以前的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)呈现评估报告。