With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.

中文翻译：

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面对气候变化，马达加斯加保护区网络的未来代表性

预计许多物种会通过将其分布转移到适合气候的区域来应对气候变化，因此人们对静态保护区（PA）的有效性产生了疑问。在过去的15年中，马达加斯加的PA网络面积增加了三倍，尽管在此过程中采用了保护性规划技术来确定合适的保护区域，但是并未考虑气候变化的影响。我们利用750种马达加斯加脊椎动物的物种分布模型来评估气候变化对（1）马达加斯加的物种丰富度，（2）马达加斯加的PA中物种的增，减和周转以及（3）PA网络代表性的潜在影响。结果表明，预计马达加斯加的物种丰富度将发生重大变化，大多数PA预计会经历较高的物种周转率。如果没有阻碍物种运动的障碍，那么对于到2070年预计将在气候变化中生存的物种，当前的PA网络的代表性将保持很高，这表明建立新的PA将无济于事。但是，这是基于以下假设：在目前具有破碎性和人为活动特征的地区具有流动性，这需要在保护工作上进行大量扩展才能实现。