Abstract This study uses a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential economic impacts of ethanol production in Uganda. We introduce an ethanol sector in the 2016/17 Uganda's social accounting matrix (SAM) using maize, cassava, sugarcane, and molasses as feedstocks. Furthermore, we evaluate the suitability of each feedstock. By simulating a 10% blending mandate, we find that factor employment and total output would increase, with a sluggish rise in commodity prices. Real GDP would grow moderately, and household income increase, mostly for the rural households. Household welfare would decline because of a counter-financing tax on gasoline. A reduction in gasoline imports is likely to improve the trade balance, and despite the ensuing decline in import tax revenues, government income would still rise. Our results are suggestive of ethanol production as a potential pro-poor project for Uganda. Both sugarcane and maize are more growth-enhancing compared to cassava. The use of only molasses from the sugar industry may result in negative impacts since it is already an input in other activities. We also observe that using an average of multiple feedstocks would be more sustainable. Moreover, it would allow a more balanced growth while reducing upward price pressures.

中文翻译：

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以农业为基础的发展中经济体的乙醇：乌干达可计算的一般均衡评估

摘要 本研究使用静态可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型来检验乌干达乙醇生产的潜在经济影响。我们在 2016/17 年乌干达的社会核算矩阵 (SAM) 中引入了乙醇行业，使用玉米、木薯、甘蔗和糖蜜作为原料。此外，我们评估每种原料的适用性。通过模拟 10% 的混合任务，我们发现要素就业和总产出将增加，而商品价格上涨缓慢。实际国内生产总值将适度增长，家庭收入增加，主要是农村家庭。由于对汽油征收反融资税，家庭福利会下降。汽油进口的减少可能会改善贸易平衡，尽管进口税收收入随之下降，但政府收入仍将增加。我们的结果表明乙醇生产是乌干达潜在的扶贫项目。与木薯相比，甘蔗和玉米都更能促进生长。仅使用来自制糖业的糖蜜可能会产生负面影响，因为它已经是其他活动的一种投入。我们还观察到，平均使用多种原料会更具可持续性。此外，它将允许更平衡的增长，同时减少价格上涨压力。