Abstract

The changes in the hydrological regime of rivers in the Moscow region occurred under global warming. It is expressed in the redistribution of runoff within a year: an increase in minimum runoff and a decrease in flood runoff. The analysis of the series of the inflow to the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs revealed stationarity disturbances in the studied series for the period of 1978–1980. This was followed by a change in the characteristics of runoff regulation carried out for water supply in the Moscow region. It is shown that the inflow changes led to the statistical heterogeneity of the series of regulation characteristics, including the total live storage and water deficiency. The Bayesian method is proposed for obtaining statistical characteristics of nonstationary series of the inflow and yield of the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs.

中文翻译：

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莫斯科地区水文制度和供水的现代变化

摘要

在全球变暖的情况下，莫斯科地区河流的水文状况发生了变化。它以一年内径流量的重新分配来表示：最小径流量的增加和洪水径流量的减少。对Moskvoretskaya系统水库入流序列的分析表明，在1978-1980年期间，所研究的序列存在平稳扰动。随后，莫斯科地区对供水的径流调节特性发生了变化。结果表明，流入量的变化导致一系列调节特征在统计上的异质性，包括总的活体蓄水量和缺水量。提出了贝叶斯方法来获得Moskvoretskaya系统储层非平稳序列入流和产量的统计特征。