This paper further investigates the Talent versus Luck (TvL) model described by [Pluchino et al. Talent versus luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (2018) 1850014] which models the relationship between ‘talent’ and ‘luck’ on the impact of an individuals career. It is shown that the model is very sensitive to both random sampling and the choice of value for the input parameters. Running the model repeatedly with the same set of input parameters gives a range of output values of over 50% of the mean value. The sensitivity of the inputs of the model is analyzed using a variance-based approach based upon generating Sobol sequences of quasi-random numbers. When using the model to look at the talent associated with an individual who has the maximum capital over a model run it has been shown that the choice for the standard deviation of the talent distribution contributes to 67% of the model variability. When investigating the maximum amount of capital returned by the model the probability of a lucky event at any given epoch has the largest impact on the model, almost three times more than any other individual parameter. Consequently, during the analysis of the model results one must keep in mind the impact that only small changes in the input parameters can have on the model output.

中文翻译：

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“人才与运气”模型中的运气

本文进一步研究了 [Pluchino 等人描述的人才与运气（TvL）模型。天赋与运气：随机性在成功和失败中的作用，Adv。复杂的系统。21 (2018) 1850014]，它模拟了“天赋”和“运气”之间的关系对个人职业生涯的影响。结果表明，该模型对随机采样和输入参数值的选择都非常敏感。使用相同的输入参数集重复运行模型会得到超过平均值 50% 的输出值范围。使用基于生成准随机数的 Sobol 序列的基于方差的方法分析模型输入的敏感性。当使用该模型来查看与在模型运行中拥有最大资本的个人相关的人才时，已经表明，人才分布的标准差的选择占模型可变性的 67%。在调查模型返回的最大资本金额时，任何给定时期的幸运事件的概率对模型的影响最大，几乎是任何其他单个参数的三倍。因此，在分析模型结果的过程中，必须牢记只有输入参数的微小变化才能对模型输出产生影响。在调查模型返回的最大资本金额时，任何给定时期的幸运事件的概率对模型的影响最大，几乎是任何其他单个参数的三倍。因此，在分析模型结果的过程中，必须牢记只有输入参数的微小变化才能对模型输出产生影响。在调查模型返回的最大资本金额时，任何给定时期的幸运事件的概率对模型的影响最大，几乎是任何其他单个参数的三倍。因此，在分析模型结果的过程中，必须牢记只有输入参数的微小变化才能对模型输出产生影响。