Genetic data are often used to infer demographic history and changes or detect genes under selection. Inferential methods are commonly based on models making various strong assumptions: demography and population structures are supposed a priori known, the evolution of the genetic composition of a population does not affect demography nor population structure, and there is no selection nor interaction between and within genetic strains. In this paper, we present a stochastic birth-death model with competitive interactions and asexual reproduction. We develop an inferential procedure for ecological, demographic, and genetic parameters. We first show how genetic diversity and genealogies are related to birth and death rates, and to how individuals compete within and between strains. This leads us to propose an original model of phylogenies, with trait structure and interactions, that allows multiple merging. Second, we develop an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework to use our model for analyzing genetic data. We apply our procedure to simulated data from a toy model, and to real data by analyzing the genetic diversity of microsatellites on Y-chromosomes sampled from Central Asia human populations in order to test whether different social organizations show significantly different fertilities.

中文翻译：

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选择、不同种群规模和不断演变的种群结构的推理：ABC 在具有相互作用的前向-后向合并过程中的应用


遗传数据通常用于推断人口统计历史和变化或检测选择下的基因。推理方法通常基于做出各种强有力假设的模型：假设人口学和人口结构是先验已知的，人口遗传组成的进化不会影响人口学或人口结构，遗传之间和遗传内部不存在选择或相互作用。菌株。在本文中，我们提出了一种具有竞争性相互作用和无性繁殖的随机出生-死亡模型。我们开发了生态、人口和遗传参数的推理程序。我们首先展示遗传多样性和谱系与出生率和死亡率的关系，以及个体如何在品系内部和品系之间竞争。这导致我们提出了一个原始的系统发育模型，具有特征结构和相互作用，允许多重合并。其次，我们开发了一个近似贝叶斯计算框架，以使用我们的模型来分析遗传数据。我们将我们的程序应用于玩具模型的模拟数据，并通过分析中亚人群中 Y 染色体上微卫星的遗传多样性来应用于真实数据，以测试不同的社会组织是否表现出显着不同的生育力。