ABSTRACT Since the late 1980s, the city of Quito shows a considerable expansion of urban land. This study generates plausible scenarios of urban growth that can be applied within urban planning and used for applications, such as projections of transportation needs, or air pollution exposure. We develop a methodology to map urban growth using the LUCIA model. The urban growth is estimated based on land use maps, regulatory constraints, population, proximity, suitability, accessibility to main roads, urban areas, and sub-centralities. The model considers the complex topography of Quito by defining the driving forces according to the elevation of the terrain. The model is calibrated for the period 2000–2016 and satisfactorily evaluated for 2018 applying a cell by cell and spatial pattern comparison. We analyse the effect on the result assessment if small errors nearby the actual and simulated urban land are considered as correct, finding an increase of 30% in the accuracy for one cell of distance. We apply the model to predict the urban growth of Quito between 2016 and 2040. Results show that, if the current trend continues, the urban land will increase by 84% with a continuous fragmentation that stabilizes around the year 2025.

中文翻译：

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使用基于元胞自动机的模型模拟城市增长的空间范围：厄瓜多尔基多的案例研究

摘要 自 1980 年代后期以来，基多市显示出城市土地的显着扩张。这项研究产生了合理的城市增长情景，可用于城市规划和应用，例如交通需求预测或空气污染暴露。我们开发了一种使用 LUCIA 模型绘制城市增长图的方法。城市增长是根据土地利用地图、监管限制、人口、邻近性、适宜性、主要道路、城市地区和次中心地区的可达性来估算的。该模型通过根据地形的高程定义驱动力来考虑基多的复杂地形。该模型在 2000-2016 年期间进行了校准，并在 2018 年应用单元格和空间模式比较令人满意地评估。我们分析了如果将实际和模拟城市土地附近的小误差视为正确对结果评估的影响，发现一个距离单元的准确度提高了 30%。我们应用该模型来预测 2016 年至 2040 年间基多的城市增长。结果表明，如果目前的趋势继续下去，城市用地将增加 84%，并在 2025 年左右趋于稳定。