Discrete‐time Bayesian network (DTBN) is a popular tool for the reliability analysis of dynamic systems, which, however, is insufficient in analyzing the reliability of multilevel system (MLS) with warm spare (WSP) gates. Additionally, conventional DTBNs are not able to consider the situation that dormant components and primary components may fail during the same time interval. To this end, this paper analyzes the dynamic reliability characteristics of dormant systems with WSP gates by utilizing DTBNs. Moreover, an algorithm of modeling the conditional probability table (CPT) for WSP gates together with a new schedule of constructing dynamic Bayesian networks is put forward. The validation of the proposed techniques is implemented by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and reliability analysis of an actual communication station system.

中文翻译：

---

具有热备用门的多层系统可靠性分析的离散贝叶斯网络算法

离散贝叶斯网络（DTBN）是动态系统可靠性分析的流行工具，但是，它不足以分析带有热备用（WSP）门的多级系统（MLS）的可靠性。此外，常规DTBN无法考虑休眠组件和主要组件在同一时间间隔内可能发生故障的情况。为此，本文利用DTBN分析了具有WSP门的休眠系统的动态可靠性特征。此外，提出了一种为WSP门建立条件概率表（CPT）建模的算法，并提出了构建动态贝叶斯网络的新时间表。所提出技术的验证是通过蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）和实际通信站系统的可靠性分析来实现的。