Circular business models (CBMs) and their potential environmental benefits have been widely assessed by using life cycle assessment (LCA). However, most LCA studies consider static systems and assume instant and full technology adoption, limiting the analysis of the implications of circular transitions. Considering technology diffusion in LCA models may bring a better understanding of the environmental implications of the adoption of CBMs. Nevertheless, diffusion is also related to stock dynamics, which are difficult to represent in classic LCA models. To overcome these issues, we propose a modeling framework that integrates three modeling families to assess the environmental impacts and material implications of the adoption of CBMs: diffusion of innovations, product stock dynamics, and LCA. We present a method of application and illustrate it with a theoretical case study. This framework might be useful in the socio-economic analysis of systems transitioning to CBMs, especially in systems that involve long-lived products.

中文翻译：

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循环转变对环境和材料的影响：基于扩散和产品生命周期的建模框架

循环商业模式 (CBM) 及其潜在的环境效益已通过使用生命周期评估 (LCA) 得到广泛评估。然而，大多数 LCA 研究考虑静态系统并假设即时和全面采用技术，限制了对循环转换影响的分析。考虑 LCA 模型中的技术扩散可能会更好地理解采用 CBM 对环境的影响。然而，扩散也与股票动态有关，这在经典 LCA 模型中很难表示。为了克服这些问题，我们提出了一个建模框架，该框架集成了三个建模系列，以评估采用 CBM 的环境影响和材料影响：创新扩散、产品库存动态和 LCA。我们提出了一种应用方法，并通过一个理论案例研究来说明它。该框架可能有助于对过渡到 CBM 的系统进行社会经济分析，尤其是在涉及长寿命产品的系统中。