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An integrated population model for estimating the relative effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on a threatened population of steelhead trout
Journal of Applied Ecology ( IF 5.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13789 Mark D. Scheuerell 1 , Casey P. Ruff 2 , Joseph H. Anderson 3 , Eric M. Beamer 2
中文翻译：
用于估计自然和人为因素对受威胁的硬头鳟鱼种群的相对影响的综合种群模型
更新日期：2021-01-07
Journal of Applied Ecology ( IF 5.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13789 Mark D. Scheuerell 1 , Casey P. Ruff 2 , Joseph H. Anderson 3 , Eric M. Beamer 2
Affiliation
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- Assessing the degree to which at‐risk species are regulated by density‐dependent versus density‐independent factors is often complicated by incomplete or biased information. If not addressed in an appropriate manner, errors in the data can affect estimates of population demographics, which may obfuscate the anticipated response of the population to a specific action.
- We developed a Bayesian integrated population model that accounts explicitly for interannual variability in the number of reproducing adults and their age structure, harvest and environmental conditions. We apply the model to 41 years of data for a population of threatened steelhead trout Oncorhynchus mykiss using freshwater flows, ocean indices and releases of hatchery‐born conspecifics as covariates.
- We found compelling evidence that the population is under density‐dependent regulation, despite being well below its historical population size. In the freshwater portion of the lifecycle, we found a negative relationship between productivity (offspring per parent) and peak winter flows, and a positive relationship with summer flows. We also found a negative relationship between productivity and releases of hatchery conspecifics. In the marine portion of the lifecycle, we found a positive correlation between productivity and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation.
- Synthesis and applications. The evidence for density‐dependent population regulation, combined with the substantial loss of juvenile rearing habitat in this river basin, suggests that habitat restoration could benefit this population of at‐risk steelhead. Our results also imply that hatchery programmes for steelhead need to be considered carefully with respect to habitat availability and recovery goals for wild steelhead. If releases of hatchery steelhead have indeed limited the production potential of wild steelhead, there are likely significant trade‐offs between providing harvest opportunities via hatchery steelhead production and achieving wild steelhead recovery goals. Furthermore, harvest rates on wild fish have been sufficiently low to ensure very little risk of overfishing.
中文翻译：
用于估计自然和人为因素对受威胁的硬头鳟鱼种群的相对影响的综合种群模型
- 由于信息不完整或有偏见，评估高危物种受密度依赖与密度无关因素调节的程度通常很复杂。如果不能以适当的方式解决，数据中的错误可能会影响人口统计数据的估计，这可能会使预期的人口对特定行动的反应难以理解。
- 我们开发了一个贝叶斯综合人口模型，该模型明确说明了成年繁殖数量及其年龄结构，收成和环境条件的年际变化。我们应用该模型到41年的数据为人口威胁虹鳟虹鳟使用淡水流，海洋指数和孵化出生的同种作为协的版本。
- 我们发现令人信服的证据表明，尽管人口远低于其历史人口规模，但其仍处于密度依赖性控制之下。在生命周期的淡水部分，我们发现生产力（每个父母的后代）与冬季高峰流量之间呈负相关，与夏季流量之间呈正相关。我们还发现生产力与孵化场特定物种的释放之间存在负相关关系。在生命周期的海洋部分，我们发现生产力与北太平洋涡旋振荡之间呈正相关。
- 综合与应用。密度依赖性种群调节的证据，加上该流域少年饲养栖息地的大量丧失，表明栖息地的恢复可以使处于危险之中的高风险黑头种群受益。我们的结果还暗示，应在考虑野生黑头鱼的栖息地可用性和恢复目标方面认真考虑针对黑头鱼的孵化场计划。如果孵化场钢头的释放确实限制了野生钢头的生产潜力，那么在通过孵化场钢头生产提供收获机会与实现野生钢头恢复目标之间可能存在重大的取舍。此外，野生鱼类的收获率已经足够低，以确保很少有过度捕捞的风险。
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