Climate change has been shown to impact marine fish populations and communities. With small population sizes, long reproduction times, and a rapidly warming habitat, thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) could be particularly vulnerable. To examine this possibility, we used a two‐stage generalized additive model to project future thorny skate abundances under two different climate scenarios. This is the first study in the northeastern United States to compare projections based on different survey methods (bottom trawl and longline), and results were heavily impacted by survey methodology. Models trained with the NOAA Bottom Trawl Survey projected a decrease in abundance of ~60%–80% in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. With aggressive mitigation (RCP 4.5), these decreases could be reduced to ~35%–45%. Models trained with a recent NOAA longline survey indicated that thorny skate abundance would be reduced 22% and 37% under business as usual and mitigation, respectively. There are substantial methodological differences between the two data sets, including capture technique and efficiency, total habitat coverage, and spatio‐temporal coverage. This underscores the importance of continued, methodologically diverse surveys on the Northeast US continental shelf. Our results indicate that climate change will continue to negatively impact thorny skate populations by reducing the amount of thermally suitable habitat in the southern extent of their range. This information should be considered in future management decisions.

中文翻译：

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使用拖网和延绳钓调查模型模拟气候变化对美国东北陆架上棘手滑冰（Amblyraja radiata）的影响

事实证明，气候变化会影响海水鱼类种群和社区。棘手的溜冰鞋（Amblyraja radiata）人口少，繁殖时间长，栖息地迅速变暖）可能特别脆弱。为了检验这种可能性，我们使用了两阶段的广义加性模型来预测两种不同气候情景下未来棘手的滑冰丰度。这是在美国东北部进行的第一项研究，该研究比较了基于不同调查方法（底拖网和延绳钓）的预测，并且调查方法严重影响了结果。通过NOAA底部拖网调查训练的模型预测，在RCP 8.5气候情景下，缅因湾和乔治银行的丰度将降低约60％–80％。如果采取积极的缓解措施（RCP 4.5），这些减少可以减少到〜35％–45％。经过最近的NOAA延绳钓调查训练的模型表明，在正常运作和缓解的情况下，棘手的滑冰丰度将分别降低22％和37％。两种数据集之间在方法上存在实质性差异，包括捕获技术和效率，生境总覆盖率和时空覆盖率。这强调了在美国东北部大陆架上继续进行方法学上多样化的调查的重要性。我们的结果表明，气候变化将通过减少其范围南部的热适宜生境数量继续对棘手的滑冰种群产生负面影响。在将来的管理决策中应考虑此信息。我们的结果表明，气候变化将通过减少其范围南部的热适宜生境数量继续对棘手的滑冰种群产生负面影响。在将来的管理决策中应考虑此信息。我们的结果表明，气候变化将通过减少其范围南部的热适宜生境数量继续对棘手的滑冰种群产生负面影响。在将来的管理决策中应考虑此信息。