Abstract In conventional structural protective design against blast loads conservative structural designs are anticipated. However, unknown factors that include threat uncertainty, blast load variation, construction methods, material quality, etc., could impact the accuracy of assessment and design, sometimes even leading to an overestimation of structural capacity to explosive blast effects or an underestimation of actual blast pressures. In the present study, structural safety and reliability analyses of Ultra-high Performance Concrete (UHPC) columns under varying blast scenarios are performed. The variation in column dimensions, steel reinforcement, UHPC material strength, explosive range and mass, and numerical and blast load model errors are considered. The peak reflected pressure and impulse from the selected blast scenarios are derived based on variation in the explosive mass and standoff distance. Failure probabilities of columns made of this emerging high performance concrete material are then estimated. It was found that for a UHPC column designed for blast the probability of major damage given an explosive blast load varies from 1 × 10−2 to 1 × 10−5 for explosive ordnance and terrorism blast scenarios. This provides a reasonable margin of safety against major structural damage. It was also found that the risk reducing benefit of blast-resistant UHPC columns can be considerable.

中文翻译：

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基于风险的超高性能混凝土柱抗爆设计评估

摘要 在针对爆炸载荷的传统结构防护设计中，预期保守结构设计。然而，包括威胁不确定性、爆炸载荷变化、施工方法、材料质量等在内的未知因素可能会影响评估和设计的准确性，有时甚至会导致对爆炸性爆炸影响的结构能力估计过高或对实际爆炸影响估计过低。压力。在本研究中，对超高性能混凝土 (UHPC) 柱在不同爆炸场景下的结构安全性和可靠性进行了分析。考虑了柱尺寸、钢筋、UHPC 材料强度、爆炸范围和质量以及数值和爆炸载荷模型误差的变化。所选爆炸场景的峰值反射压力和脉冲是根据爆炸物质量和间隔距离的变化推导出来的。然后估计由这种新兴的高性能混凝土材料制成的柱子的失效概率。结果表明，对于为爆炸设计的 UHPC 柱，在爆炸性爆炸载荷和恐怖主义爆炸场景中，爆炸载荷的主要损坏概率从 1 × 10-2 到 1 × 10-5 不等。这为防止重大结构损坏提供了合理的安全边际。还发现抗爆 UHPC 柱的风险降低益处是可观的。结果表明，对于为爆炸设计的 UHPC 柱，在爆炸性爆炸载荷和恐怖主义爆炸场景中，爆炸载荷的主要损坏概率从 1 × 10-2 到 1 × 10-5 不等。这为防止重大结构损坏提供了合理的安全边际。还发现抗爆 UHPC 柱的风险降低益处是可观的。结果表明，对于为爆炸设计的 UHPC 柱，在爆炸性爆炸载荷和恐怖主义爆炸场景中，爆炸载荷的主要损坏概率从 1 × 10-2 到 1 × 10-5 不等。这为防止重大结构损坏提供了合理的安全边际。还发现抗爆 UHPC 柱的风险降低益处是可观的。