This study investigates the impact of operational fluctuations and uncertainties on the design and expected cost of ship-based CO₂ transport. The model analysis is based on a two-stage stochastic investment model for a single-source single-sink CCS value chain with a ship-based transport system. The sailing time of the ship is uncertain due to changing weather conditions. The optimal investment decisions are driven by the expected cost of operating the value chain in the stochastic operational scenarios. This approach is demonstrated on a case study in which 0.4 MtCO₂/y is transported over 715 km, from a cement plant located in Brevik to a harbor in Kollsnes in Norway.

The results show that a transport rate of 99 % of the available CO₂ leads to the lowest average cost of transport at 33.8 €/ton. Once the delays caused by the weather are considered, the buffer storage capacity that is 18 % above the ships transport capacity, seems to be the most efficient solution for recovering normal operation after weather delays. The expected transport cost increases with 1.9 €/ton (i.e. 5%) when the uncertainty in weather conditions is neglected in the value chain design decisions. Furthermore, seasonal variations in emissions lead to the need of a larger ship rather than maintaining the same ship size and increasing the power when required. The seasonal storage of CO₂ never appears to be a cost-efficient strategy, compared to increasing ship capacity. Finally, the risks of higher future fuel prices and ship breakdowns will cause the value of buffer storage capacity to increase, and thus resulting to select a buffer capacity up to 73 % larger than the ship size.

这项研究调查了操作波动和不确定性对船载CO ₂运输设计和预期成本的影响。该模型分析基于具有船舶运输系统的单源单汇CCS价值链的两阶段随机投资模型。由于天气条件的变化，船舶的航行时间不确定。在随机操作场景中，最优投资决策由价值链的预期运营成本决定。案例研究证明了这种方法，其中0.4 MtCO ₂ / y从布雷维克的水泥厂到挪威科尔斯内斯的一个港口运输了715公里。

结果表明，99％的可用CO ₂的运输率导致最低的平均运输成本为33.8€/吨。一旦考虑到天气造成的延误，比船舶运输能力高18％的缓冲存储容量似乎是在天气延误后恢复正常运行的最有效解决方案。当价值链设计决策中忽略了天气条件的不确定性时，预期的运输成本将增加1.9欧元/吨（即5％）。此外，排放的季节性变化导致需要更大的船舶，而不是保持相同的船舶尺寸并在需要时增加功率。CO ₂的季节性储存与增加船运能力相比，从来没有一个划算的策略。最后，未来燃料价格上涨和船舶故障的风险将导致缓冲器存储容量的价值增加，从而导致选择的缓冲器容量最多比船舶尺寸大73％。