Abstract In this paper, we analyse the socio-economic determinants of wildfire crime in Italy through panel data at the regional level. The first aim of the paper is to evaluate whether socioeconomic variables suggested by crime theory are linked to wildfire crime in Italy. Using Poisson-type models it is found that social vulnerability factors such as poverty and unemployment play an important role in driving wildfire crime. Organised crime is also found to be a significant factor explaining wildfire crime. A second aim of the paper is to investigate the effect of deterrence factors as fire prevention tools. Using regional data about forest fires charges we investigate the effect of apprehension at different levels of the law enforcement process. Namely, we compute proxies for the probability of standing trial once apprehended, the probability of being successfully identified as offender, and finally the probability of being convicted for wildfire crime. Our results provide evidence that law enforcement efforts are negatively related to the occurrence of wildfire crime.

中文翻译：

---

意大利的野火犯罪、忧虑和社会脆弱性

摘要 在本文中，我们通过区域层面的面板数据分析了意大利野火犯罪的社会经济决定因素。该论文的第一个目的是评估犯罪理论提出的社会经济变量是否与意大利的野火犯罪有关。使用泊松型模型发现，贫困和失业等社会脆弱性因素在推动野火犯罪方面发挥着重要作用。有组织的犯罪也被发现是解释野火犯罪的一个重要因素。本文的第二个目的是研究威慑因素作为防火工具的效果。我们使用有关森林火灾指控的区域数据来调查逮捕对执法过程不同级别的影响。即，我们计算一旦被捕后接受审判的概率的代理，被成功认定为犯罪者的概率，以及最终因野火罪被定罪的概率。我们的结果提供证据表明执法努力与野火犯罪的发生呈负相关。