Abstract Aquaculture is the fastest growing animal food producing sector in the world with an annual growth rate of 7%. In Norway alone production of this industry is projected to expand from 1.2 million tons today to 5 million tons by 2050, implying a rapid increase in the demand for sustainable salmon feed alternatives to conventional feed resources such as fish meal and fish oil. Yeast produced from nonfood resources such as wood can serve as a high-quality protein source for farmed fish. In this study we analyze how commercial wood-based feed production in Norway using softwood chips from roundwood and sawmill residues will influence wood fiber prices. Such production will have to compete for wood fiber with wood-based bioenergy in particular, and the analyses were done assuming three main scenarios of expected global consumption of wood for bioenergy. The first scenario (Base) assumes a modest use of wood-based bioenergy reflecting the EU climate mitigation target for 2030. The second (MaxEnergy) and third (MaxEnergyLowRes) scenarios assume using bioenergy at a scale sufficient to fulfill IPCC's 2 °C climate mitigation target, with the only difference that in the MaxBio scenario tree stump utilization is allowed in Europe and USA. The bio-economic global partial equilibrium model EFI-GTM was applied to assess the economic impacts. Yeast production from wood in Norway could be able to pay from 37 to 64 euro/m3 of wood delivered mill site, the large variation depending on the yeast production costs other than wood biomass and the price of alternative fish feed resources. Other factors e.g. improved salmon health due to using wood-based yeast and environmental policy regulations of soya meal productions may increase this paying ability. To get 3 million m3 of wood per year during the period 2020–2030 for producing 330 t yeast it would be necessary to pay about 54, 47 and 55 euro/m3 in the scenarios Base, Bio and BioLowRes, respectively. The wood quantity supplied to the salmon feed production from additional Norwegian harvest will be rather low. If production of wood-based yeast for fish feed proves to be viable in Norway, it is likely to be attractive also in other aquaculture regions like North- and South America and Scotland, implying increased wood demand and higher wood prices than estimated above. Microbial ingredients like yeast produced from non-food biomass such as wood, offer potentials for commercial production. However, the present costs of producing yeast from lignocellulosic biomass may still be too high, and there is a need to develop more efficient processes for economic utilization.

中文翻译：

---

食用木材：挪威可持续利用森林生物质生产鲑鱼饲料的经济影响

摘要 水产养殖是世界上增长最快的动物食品生产部门，年增长率为 7%。仅在挪威，该行业的产量预计将从目前的 120 万吨增加到 2050 年的 500 万吨，这意味着对替代传统饲料资源（如鱼粉和鱼油）的可持续鲑鱼饲料替代品的需求将迅速增加。用木材等非食物资源生产的酵母可作为养殖鱼类的优质蛋白质来源。在这项研究中，我们分析了在挪威使用圆木和锯木厂残留物的软木片生产商业木基饲料将如何影响木纤维价格。这种生产将不得不与木质生物能源竞争木纤维，特别是，并且分析是在假设三种主要的生物能源预期全球木材消耗情况下进行的。第一个情景（基础）假设适度使用木质生物能源，以反映欧盟 2030 年的气候减缓目标。第二个（MaxEnergy）和第三个（MaxEnergyLowRes）情景假设使用生物能源的规模足以实现 IPCC 的 2°C 气候减缓目标，唯一的区别是在 MaxBio 场景中，欧洲和美国允许使用树桩。应用生物经济全球局部均衡模型 EFI-GTM 来评估经济影响。在挪威，用木材生产酵母可以支付 37 到 64 欧元/立方米的木材交付工厂，这一差异很大，取决于木材生物质以外的酵母生产成本和替代鱼饲料资源的价格。其他因素，例如由于使用木基酵母而改善鲑鱼健康和豆粕生产的环境政策法规可能会增加这种支付能力。要在 2020 年至 2030 年期间每年获得 300 万立方米木材以生产 330 吨酵母，在 Base、Bio 和 BioLowRes 情景中分别需要支付约 54、47 和 55 欧元/立方米。从额外的挪威收获中供应给鲑鱼饲料生产的木材数量将相当低。如果用于鱼饲料的木质酵母的生产在挪威被证明是可行的，那么它在北美、南美和苏格兰等其他水产养殖地区也很可能具有吸引力，这意味着木材需求增加，木材价格高于上述估计。微生物成分，如由木材等非食物生物质生产的酵母，提供商业化生产的潜力。然而，目前从木质纤维素生物质生产酵母的成本可能仍然太高，需要开发更有效的经济利用方法。