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Trivariate joint probability model of typhoon-induced wind, wave and their time lag based on the numerical simulation of historical typhoons
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-31 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01922-w
Kai Wei , Zhonghui Shen , Zilong Ti , Shunquan Qin

Typhoon-induced wind and wave can interrupt the operation and even threaten the safety of moving vehicles and bridges. However, the typhoon-induced maximum wind speed and maximum wave height are not coincident in time. Hence, it is a critical issue to include the time lag in the hazard model of wind and wave conditions for bridges. This paper adopts the concept of the pair-copula decomposed model to develop a trivariate joint probability model of typhoon-induced maximum wind speed, maximum wave height and their time lag. Pingtan Strait, where a sea-crossing bridge is being built, is taken as the example site. Considering the long-term measured wind and wave conditions under typhoons are not available, 58 tropical cyclones from 1990 to 2018 that influenced the example site are selected. The typhoon-induced maximum wind speed, wave height and their time lag at the example site are simulated using the validated SWAN + ADCIRC coupled numerical model. The trivariate joint probability modeling of wind, wave and time lag was carried out based on the simulated data. The trivariate environmental surfaces with the 50-year and 100-year return periods were finally obtained by the inverse first-order reliability method. The results show that more than 50% of typhoons have the maximum wind lagged behind the maximum wave at the example site. The higher typhoon-induced maximum wind speed and wave height tend to occur simultaneously. Two-parameter Weibull distribution is suitable to fit the distribution of the maximum wind speed and wave height, and the GEV distribution is ideal for the distribution of time lag. According to the trivariate environmental surface, neglecting the time lag might slightly overestimate the demand of the wind and wave loads. This study is of particular interest to the researchers and engineers in developing the metocean conditions.



中文翻译:

基于历史台风数值模拟的台风诱发风浪及其时滞三元联合概率模型

台风引起的风浪会中断运行,甚至威胁到行驶中的车辆和桥梁的安全。但是,台风引起的最大风速和最大波高在时间上并不一致。因此,将时滞纳入桥梁风浪条件的危害模型中是至关重要的问题。本文采用对-库拉分解模型的概念,建立了台风诱发的最大风速,最大浪高及其时滞的三变量联合概率模型。以兴建跨海大桥的平潭海峡为例。考虑到无法长期测量台风下的风浪条件,因此选择了1990年至2018年影响示例站点的58个热带气旋。台风引起的最大风速,使用已验证的SWAN + ADCIRC耦合数值模型对示例站点的波高及其时滞进行了仿真。基于模拟数据对风,浪和时滞进行了三变量联合概率建模。最后,通过一阶逆可靠性方法获得了具有50年和100年回报期的三变量环境表面。结果表明,在示例站点中,超过50%的台风具有最大风滞后的最大风。较高的台风诱发的最大风速和波高往往同时发生。两参数威布尔分布适合于最大风速和波高的分布,而GEV分布是时滞分布的理想选择。根据三元环境表面,忽略时间滞后可能会稍微高估风浪负荷的需求。这项研究对研究人员和工程师开发海洋环境特别感兴趣。

更新日期:2020-11-02
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