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District based flood risk assessment in Istanbul using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-30 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01924-8
Ömer Ekmekcioğlu , Kerim Koc , Mehmet Özger

Floods, among the most frequent and severe hazards in the world, threaten the sustainability of the built environment by causing immense damage to infrastructures, buildings, economies, social activities and beyond all, cause loss of lives. Istanbul is the most densely populated industrial, commercial and cultural center of Turkey. Besides, the population of Istanbul has increased over the last decade since the city attracts immigrants from all over Turkey, along with other countries. Therefore, it is vital to prioritize the districts of Istanbul by determining flood risk mitigation strategies since flood risk management is carried out at district level units in local municipalities in Istanbul. In this study, a new hierarchical procedure that consists of thirteen flood vulnerability and hazard criteria is proposed for the generation of Istanbul’s district-based flood risk map. To obtain the criteria weights the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was adopted. The sensitivity analysis conducted in this study reveals the stability and robustness of the proposed fuzzy AHP model. Among all the criteria, land use and the return period of a storm event were found as the most significant criteria for vulnerability and hazard clusters, respectively. Criteria weights calculated through the fuzzy AHP method were integrated with the data taken from various institutions with respect to each district to calculate risk scores of the districts. Consequently, district risk scores were used to generate a flood risk map of Istanbul. The findings show that high-risk districts are mainly at the center and highly populated areas of the city. Moreover, the accuracy of the proposed approach was validated through observations of the significant flood events experienced in the last two decades. Thus, the fuzzy AHP method can be considered as advantageous to make a quick and regional flood risk assessment. In addition, the proposed approach is useful to mitigate flood risk along with allocating a fair budget to the local municipalities for flood risk mitigation measures. The findings of this research could also provide useful procedures for professionals of the water resources and local authorities.



中文翻译:

基于模糊层次分析的伊斯坦布尔地区洪水风险评估

洪水是世界上最常见,最严重的灾害之一,对基础设施,建筑物,经济,社会活动造成巨大破坏,并威胁到生命的生命,从而威胁着建筑环境的可持续性。伊斯坦布尔是土耳其人口最稠密的工业,商业和文化中心。此外,自从伊斯坦布尔吸引了来自土耳其各地以及其他国家的移民以来,伊斯坦布尔的人口在过去十年中有所增加。因此,通过确定减轻洪灾风险的策略来优先考虑伊斯坦布尔地区至关重要,因为洪灾风险管理是在伊斯坦布尔当地城市的地区级单位进行的。在这个研究中,为生成伊斯坦布尔基于区域的洪水风险图,提出了一种由十三种洪水脆弱性和灾害标准组成的新分层程序。为了获得标准权重,采用了模糊层次分析法。在这项研究中进行的敏感性分析揭示了所提出的模糊AHP模型的稳定性和鲁棒性。在所有标准中,土地使用和风暴事件的重现期分别被认为是脆弱性和灾害群最重要的标准。通过模糊AHP方法计算的标准权重与从各个机构获取的有关每个地区的数据相结合,以计算地区的风险评分。因此,使用地区风险评分来生成伊斯坦布尔的洪水风险图。调查结果表明,高风险地区主要位于城市的中心和人口稠密的地区。此外,通过观察过去二十年来发生的重大洪水事件,验证了所提方法的准确性。因此,模糊AHP方法可以被认为有利于进行快速的区域性洪水风险评估。另外,所提议的方法对于减轻洪水风险以及将公平的预算分配给当地市政当局以减轻洪水风险的措施都是有用的。这项研究的结果还可以为水资源专业人士和地方当局提供有用的程序。通过观察过去二十年来发生的重大洪水事件,验证了所提方法的准确性。因此,模糊AHP方法可以被认为有利于进行快速的区域性洪水风险评估。另外,所提议的方法对于减轻洪水风险以及将公平的预算分配给当地市政当局以减轻洪水风险的措施都是有用的。这项研究的结果还可以为水资源专业人士和地方当局提供有用的程序。通过观察过去二十年来发生的重大洪水事件,验证了所提方法的准确性。因此,模糊AHP方法可以被认为有利于进行快速的区域性洪水风险评估。另外,所提议的方法对于减轻洪水风险以及将公平的预算分配给当地市政当局以减轻洪水风险的措施都是有用的。这项研究的结果还可以为水资源专业人士和地方当局提供有用的程序。提议的方法对于减轻洪水风险以及将合理的预算分配给当地市政当局以减轻洪水风险的措施很有用。这项研究的结果还可以为水资源专业人士和地方当局提供有用的程序。提议的方法对于减轻洪水风险以及将合理的预算分配给当地市政当局以减轻洪水风险的措施很有用。这项研究的结果还可以为水资源专业人士和地方当局提供有用的程序。

更新日期:2020-11-02
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