The Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation approach has been widely applied to the problem of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for geographically distributed systems. Although the conventional integral approach is well-established in PSHA, the MC simulation approach is an efficient and flexible alternative when complicated factors, such as spatial correlation of ground shaking are involved. The objective of this study is to assess how the ergodic assumption influences the economic loss results for a region. To meet this objective, MC simulation and multi-scale random fields techniques are used to assess the probabilistic seismic hazard of a region, while incorporating estimated site-terms (δS2S_s) based on available strong-motion records at specific sites and spatially correlated δS2S_s at others in addition to single-station sigma to the PSHA process. The proposed method is applied to the Fatih district of Istanbul in the case of a moment magnitude 7.3 earthquake on the Marmara Fault. Results indicate that the probability for total economic loss being underestimated due to the ergodic assumption by at least 29% is 0.50 in the case of a moment magnitude 7.3 earthquake on the Marmara Fault.

蒙特卡洛（MC）模拟方法已广泛应用于地理分布系统的概率地震危险性评估（PSHA）问题。尽管在PSHA中已经建立了常规的积分方法，但是当涉及复杂的因素（例如，地面震动的空间相关性）时，MC仿真方法是一种高效且灵活的替代方法。这项研究的目的是评估遍历假设如何影响一个地区的经济损失结果。为了达到这个目标，MC模拟和多尺度随机视野技术被用于评估的区域的概率地震危险性，同时整合估计站点术语（δS2S_小号基于在特定位点可用的强震记录和空间相关的δS2S）_s在PSHA流程中，除了单站sigma之外，其他情况也是如此。在马尔马拉断层发生7.3级地震的情况下，该方法被应用于伊斯坦布尔的法提赫地区。结果表明，在马尔马拉断层发生7.3级地震的情况下，由于遍历假设而导致的总经济损失被低估至少29％，该概率为0.50。