Climbing cacti with edible fruits have been proposed as new dryland fruit crops because their high water-use efficiency reduces water requirement. One lineage of climbers in the cactus family, the Hylocereus group of Selenicereus, includes several species that produce edible fruits and is currently cultivated around the world. Fruits are known as pitahayas, pitayas or dragon fruit. Here, by means of ecological niche-based modelling and analytical hierarchical modelling, the optimal areas for cultivating the three main species of this group in Mesoamerica – Selenicereus costaricensis, Selenicereus ocamponis and Selenicereus undatus – are identified. Data on distribution, physiological requirement and host preferences are taken into account to carry out ecological modelling for current and future scenarios of climate and determine its impact on cultivation. Two MIROC climatic future models, one optimistic (ssp216) and a pessimistic (ssp585) were selected and 554 records from Mexico and Central America were gathered. For all three species, temperature and precipitation seasonality, and solar radiation were the most significant variables in the niche modelling. In addition, for S. undatus the most important hosts, three species of mesquite legume trees were significant to forecast suitable areas for planting. Large areas on the Pacific side from Sinaloa to Costa Rica were predicted as favourable for cultivating the studied three species. Future scenarios of climate change predicted increase of suitable areas for two species and in particular for S. undatus the increment was the largest. Therefore, dragon fruits are corroborated as promising fruits in view of climate change.

已经提出用食用水果来攀爬仙人掌作为新的旱地水果作物，因为它们的高用水效率降低了需水量。在仙人掌科的登山者之一血统的火龙果组Selenicereus，包括生产食用水果，目前在世界各地培养几个品种。水果被称为火龙果，火龙果或火龙果。在这里，通过基于生态利基建模和分析分层建模的方式，为培养本组的三个主要品种是中美洲地区最佳区域- Selenicereus costaricensis，Selenicereus ocamponis和Selenicereus undatus–被识别。考虑到分布，生理需求和寄主偏好的数据，以对当前和未来气候情景进行生态建模，并确定其对耕种的影响。选择了两种MIROC气候未来模型，一种是乐观的（ssp216），一种是悲观的（ssp585），并收集了来自墨西哥和中美洲的554条记录。对于这三个物种，温度和降水的季节性以及太阳辐射是利基模型中最重要的变量。另外，对于S. undatus最重要的寄主是豆科植物豆科灌木的三种树种，对预测适宜的种植面积具有重要意义。据预测，从锡那罗亚州到哥斯达黎加，太平洋一侧的大面积地区将有利于培育这三个物种。未来的气候变化情景预测，两种物种的适宜面积将增加，特别是对南美白对虾而言，增幅最大。因此，鉴于气候变化，火龙果被证明是很有前途的水果。