Urbanization plays an important role in a global change, but there are few studies that combine land use with topography and precipitation. The urbanization in Jinan, a typical city of North China, between the 1980s and 2005 was analyzed by transition matrix analysis, and the topographic effects on land use changes were explored considering altitude, slope, and aspect. The temporal trends and abrupt changes of annual and flood season precipitation for the last 60 years were detected by multiple nonparametric detection methods, and the precipitation indices were adopted to characterize the frequency and intensity of precipitation. The relationship between urbanization and precipitation was finally investigated by grey correlation analysis. The results showed that land use structure in Jinan experienced a dramatic change during recent decades due to the urbanization process, the conversion of cropland to forest, and the protection of spring in Jinan. The land use types that closely related to mankind's activities and living behaviors were more concentrated in areas with lower altitude and slope, and detected more significant changes. The significant abrupt changes of precipitation generally occurred in 1989 and concentrated in urban areas and southern mountainous areas with high increment. The increase of flood season precipitation was more significant in the central urban region with a maximum increasing rate of 39.52%, and the increase in the number of storm and precipitation days was also obvious. The precipitation indices in the flood season were more closely related to changes in farmland and settlements affected by urbanization with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.75. These findings illustrate the impact of urbanization on the variability of precipitation and support that the changes in the urban underlying surface have a certain effect on the surface energy balance.

城市化在全球变化中起着重要作用，但是很少有研究将土地利用与地形和降水结合起来。利用过渡矩阵分析法对1980年代至2005年间济南的城市化进行了分析，并探讨了地形对土地利用变化的影响，同时考虑了海拔，坡度和坡向。通过多种非参数检测方法，检测了近60年的年降水量和汛期降水量的时空趋势和突变，并采用降水指数来表征降水的频率和强度。最后通过灰色关联分析研究了城市化与降水之间的关系。结果表明，济南市土地利用结构在近几十年中由于城市化进程，退耕还林和春季保护而发生了巨大变化。与人类活动和生活行为密切相关的土地利用类型更多地集中在海拔和坡度较低的地区，并且变化更为明显。降水的急剧突变通常发生在1989年，并且集中在城市地区和南部山区，且增量很大。中心城区汛期降水增加幅度最大，最大增幅为39.52％，暴雨日数和降水日数的增加也很明显。汛期的降水指数与受城市化影响的农田和居民点的变化关系更密切，最大相关系数为0.75。这些发现说明了城市化对降水变化的影响，并支持城市下垫面的变化对地表能量平衡有一定影响。