Closed basins, mainly located in subtropical and temperate drylands, have experienced alarming declines in water storage in recent years. An assessment of long-term hydroclimate change in those regions remains unquantified at a global scale as of yet. By integrating lake records, PMIP3–CMIP5 simulations and modern observations, we assess the wet–dry status of global closed basins during the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, pre-industrial, and 20th and 21st century periods. Results show comparable patterns of general wetter climate during the mid-Holocene and near-future warm period, mainly attributed to the boreal summer and winter precipitation increasing, respectively. The long-term pattern of moisture change is highly related to the high-latitude ice sheets and low-latitude solar radiation, which leads to the poleward moving of westerlies and strengthening of monsoons during the interglacial period. However, modern moisture changes show correlations with El Niño–Southern Oscillation in most closed basins, such as the opposite significant correlations between North America and southern Africa and between central Eurasia and Australia, indicating strong connection with ocean oscillation. The strategy for combating future climate change should be more resilient to diversified hydroclimate responses in different closed basins.

中文翻译：

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全新世中期至最后一次冰期最大值之间全球封闭盆地的干枯状态变化及其对未来预测的启示

封闭盆地主要位于亚热带和温带干旱地区，近年来蓄水量急剧下降。到目前为止，在全球范围内仍未对这些地区的长期气候变化进行评估。通过整合湖泊记录，PMIP3-CMIP5模拟和现代观测，我们评估了上个冰期最大值，全新世中期，工业化之前以及20世纪和21世纪时期全球封闭盆地的干湿状况。结果表明，全新世中期和近将来暖期的总体湿润气候具有可比性，主要归因于夏季北方和冬季降水的增加。长期的水分变化模式与高纬度冰盖和低纬度太阳辐射高度相关，在冰期之间，这导致西风向极移动，季风增强。然而，在大多数封闭的盆地中，现代的水分变化显示出与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的相关性，例如北美和南部非洲以及欧亚大陆中部和澳大利亚之间的相反的显着相关性，表明与海洋振荡有很强的联系。应对未来气候变化的策略应更具弹性，以适应不同封闭盆地中多样化的水文气候响应。表明与海洋振荡有很强的联系。应对未来气候变化的策略应更具弹性，以适应不同封闭盆地中多样化的水文气候响应。表明与海洋振荡有很强的联系。应对未来气候变化的策略应更具弹性，以适应不同封闭盆地中多样化的水文气候响应。