ABSTRACT

The sustainable development of the marine economic system to accurately grasp the dynamic evolution characteristics and main driving factors of the vulnerability of the marine economic system so as to effectively identify the problems in the operation of the marine economy is extremely important. Based on the establishment of a three-level assessment index system for the vulnerability of the marine economic system, the vulnerability of the marine economic system of Jiangsu Province in 2008–2016 was evaluated by using the comprehensive index model and the catastrophe progression model, and the results were compared based on the unified evaluation criteria. The main influencing factors were analyzed by principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. It’s found that 2014, 2015, and 2012 are in a general state, 2009 and 2010 are in a poor state, and the vulnerability state from 2008 to 2011 is lower than that in 2012. The overall volatility is small indicating a stable system. Among them, the scale of marine industry and profit and loss of marine resources are the main components of marine economic system vulnerability having the highest correlation with the vulnerability of marine economic system. This study enriches the theoretical method and empirical research on the vulnerability of the marine economic system and has practical significance in allowing for timely targeted control measures to affect the vulnerability of the marine economic system.

摘要

海洋经济体系的可持续发展，准确把握海洋经济体系脆弱性的动态演化特征和主要驱动因素，从而有效地识别海洋经济运行中的问题极为重要。在建立海洋经济体系脆弱性三级评价指标体系的基础上，运用综合指标模型和巨灾进展模型对江苏省2008-2016年海洋经济体系脆弱性进行了评估，根据统一的评估标准对结果进行比较。主要影响因素通过主成分分析和皮尔森相关分析进行分析。发现2014、2015和2012年处于总体状态，2009年和2010年处于贫困状态，2008年至2011年的脆弱性状态低于2012年。总体波动性很小，表明系统处于稳定状态。其中，海洋产业规模和海洋资源损益是海洋经济体制脆弱性的主要组成部分，与海洋经济体制脆弱性的相关性最高。该研究丰富了海洋经济体系脆弱性的理论方法和实证研究，对于采取及时有针对性的控制措施影响海洋经济体系脆弱性具有现实意义。海洋产业规模和海洋资源损益是海洋经济体系脆弱性的主要组成部分，与海洋经济体系脆弱性的相关性最高。该研究丰富了海洋经济体系脆弱性的理论方法和实证研究，对于采取及时有针对性的控制措施影响海洋经济体系脆弱性具有现实意义。海洋产业规模和海洋资源损益是海洋经济体系脆弱性的主要组成部分，与海洋经济体系脆弱性的相关性最高。该研究丰富了海洋经济体系脆弱性的理论方法和实证研究，对于采取及时有针对性的控制措施影响海洋经济体系脆弱性具有现实意义。