ABSTRACT

This paper examines the stationary properties of the electricity consumption of five main sectors (residential, public services, industrial, agricultural, and street lighting) in Iran over the period 1967–2017. To analyze the data, we apply the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and GARCH-based unit root tests with structural breaks. The results of our study provide strong evidence that electricity consumption is stationary in the industrial, residential and street lighting sectors; thus, sharp shocks have transitory effects on electricity consumption, implying that consumption trends in these sectors will ultimately return to their long-run equilibrium. However, the time series of electricity consumption for the agricultural and public services sectors contain a unit root, and thus shocks to their electricity consumption are permanent. The foregoing findings can help policymakers in each sector to design efficient electricity management policies.

摘要

本文研究了1967-2017年期间伊朗五个主要部门（住宅，公共服务，工业，农业和路灯）的用电量的固定特性。为了分析数据，我们应用了带结构断裂的拉格朗日乘数（LM）和基于GARCH的单位根检验。我们的研究结果提供了有力的证据，证明工业，住宅和街道照明部门的用电量是固定的；因此，剧烈的冲击会对电力消耗产生短暂影响，这意味着这些部门的消耗趋势最终将恢复到长期均衡状态。但是，农业和公共服务部门的用电时间序列包含单位根，因此对其用电的冲击是永久性的。