ABSTRACT

Optimal cropping pattern of Maragheh-Bonab plain was determined in different decision priorities (from viewpoint of farmers and experts) and annually water availability scenarios [60, 80 and 100 MCM (million cubic meters)/year]. Goal programming model was applied to the optimization of cropping pattern with considering eight goals. In the optimal cropping pattern from viewpoint of farmers, water consumption was reduced compared to existing condition about 42%, 32%, and 3% at 60, 80, and 100 MCM/year scenarios, respectively. While, from viewpoint of experts, this reduction was about 55%, 32%, and 32% for 60, 80, and 100 MCM/year scenarios, respectively. At 60 MCM/year scenario, total net return was calculated lower than the existing cropping pattern about 11% and 45% from the viewpoint of farmers and experts, respectively. However, optimization at 80 and 100 MCM/year scenarios, increased total net return compared to existing condition about 14% and 24% from the viewpoint of farmers and 14% and 14% from the viewpoint of experts, respectively. In the optimal cropping patterns, despite lower water consumption, the amount of net return, economic water productivity, economic energy, and land productivity increased against a decrease in employment, global warming potential, and environmental impacts of pesticides in the whole area.

摘要

Maragheh-Bonab 平原的最佳种植模式是根据不同的决策优先级（从农民和专家的角度）和每年的水资源可用性情景 [60、80 和 100 MCM（百万立方米）/年] 确定的。将目标规划模型应用于考虑8个目标的种植模式优化。从农民的角度来看，在最佳种植模式下，与现有条件相比，在 60、80 和 100 MCM/年情景下，用水量分别减少了约 42%、32% 和 3%。而从专家的角度来看，对于 60、80 和 100 MCM/年的情景，这种减少分别约为 55%、32% 和 32%。从农民和专家的角度来看，在 60 MCM/年的情景下，总净收益分别比现有种植模式低 11% 和 45%。然而，在 80 和 100 MCM/年情景下进行优化，从农民的角度来看，与现有条件相比，总净收益分别增加了约 14% 和 24%，从专家的角度来看，分别增加了 14% 和 14%。在最佳种植模式下，尽管用水量减少，但净回报量、经济水生产力、经济能源和土地生产力随着整个地区就业、全球变暖潜力和农药对环境影响的减少而增加。