ABSTRACT Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people’s behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.

中文翻译：

---

揭示人类行为对减少洪水疏散过程中人员伤亡的影响

摘要 洪水是造成全世界死亡人数最多的自然灾害。洪水预警系统是降低死亡率的最具成本效益的方法之一，可触发有关疏散暴露人群的决定。尽管之前的研究调查了人类行为对疏散过程的影响，但分析行为、洪水发生和预警时间的组合的研究是有限的。我们的目标是探索上述因素的变化如何影响伤亡。这是在建模框架内完成的，该框架包括基于代理的模型、水力模型和交通模型，该模型针对 Orvieto（意大利）的案例研究实施。结果表明，伤亡人数受人们行为的影响最大。除了，我们发现，延迟 30 分钟发布警告可以使伤亡人数增加多达 6 倍。这些结果可能有助于管理者提出有效的应急计划。