ABSTRACT Understanding and monitoring extreme events is essential, particularly in river discharges from the La Plata Basin, where a large percentage of the economic resources and population of the region are concentrated. In this article, we seek to quantify the relationship between extreme events in discharge and the seasonal climatic index NIÑO 3.4. We start by estimating the phase shift between the index and mean seasonal (trimester) discharge values. Based on this result, we align the series and use the copula method to fit a joint distribution. We end up with a model that is particularly useful for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme events and monitoring their return periods. As a final step, we generate predictions and validate the model by splitting the series into training and test datasets. We develop a simple effective model for monitoring discharges using the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index.

中文翻译：

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拉普拉塔盆地 ENSO 现象与极端放电事件关系的量化和建模

摘要 了解和监测极端事件至关重要，特别是在拉普拉塔盆地的河流排放中，该地区的大部分经济资源和人口都集中在那里。在本文中，我们试图量化排放中的极端事件与季节性气候指数 NIÑO 3.4 之间的关系。我们首先估计指数和平均季节性（三个月）排放值之间的相移。基于这个结果，我们对齐系列并使用 copula 方法来拟合联合分布。我们最终得到了一个模型，该模型对于量化极端事件发生的概率和监控其重现期特别有用。作为最后一步，我们通过将系列分成训练和测试数据集来生成预测并验证模型。