Abstract

Many hydropower companies continue to rely on expert judgment to manage the operations of their reservoirs. Decision-support systems, composed of a hydrological forecasting system and a reservoir model, can ensure that reservoir operation objectives are attained more effectively than by relying solely on expert judgment. In this study, a simple ensemble inflow forecasting system coupled with a reservoir model is developed and the proposed model-based operational water management decisions are compared with those based on expert judgment for the Shipshaw River in Quebec, Canada. Given that no natural streamflow records are available for the Shipshaw River, the HEC-HMS hydrological model is calibrated using a regionalization method based on physical similarity. The calibrated hydrological model is fed by ensemble meteorological forecasts that include 20 members, with a 10-day horizon and a 6-hour time step. The proposed decision-support system can help avoid small flooding events while potentially improving energy production by 2 to 60% for this case study. The proposed forecasting system also allows water-resource managers to anticipate events with a greater lead time.

摘要

许多水电公司继续依靠专家判断来管理其水库的运营。与仅依靠专家判断相比，由水文预报系统和水库模型组成的决策支持系统可以确保更有效地实现水库运行目标。在这项研究中，开发了一个简单的集合流量预测系统，并结合了一个水库模型，并将基于模型的运行水管理决策与基于专家判断的加拿大魁北克Shipshaw河的决策进行了比较。鉴于没有适用于肖普肖河的自然流量记录，因此使用基于物理相似性的区域化方法对HEC-HMS水文模型进行了校准。校准的水文模型由集合气象预报提供，该预报包括20个成员，观测期为10天，时间步长为6小时。拟议的决策支持系统可以帮助避免小规模的洪水事件，同时针对此案例研究可以将能源生产提高2％到60％。拟议的预测系统还可以使水资源管理者以更长的交货时间来预测事件。