Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic,Advanced Theory and Simulations

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Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
Advanced Theory and Simulations ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-29 , DOI: 10.1002/adts.202000132
Ioan Bâldea ₁

Affiliation

The COVID‐19 pandemic in a population modelled as a network wherein infection can propagate both via intra‐ and inter‐group interactions is simulated. The results emphasize the importance of diminishing the inter‐group infections in the effort of substantial flattening/delaying of the epi(demiologic) curve with concomitant mitigation of disastrous economy and social consequences. To exemplify, splitting a population into m (say, 5 or 10) noninteracting groups while keeping intra‐group interaction unchanged yields a stretched epidemiological curve having the maximum number of daily infections reduced and postponed in time by the same factor m (5 or 10). More generally, the study suggests a practical approach to fight against SARS‐ CoV‐ 2 virus spread based on population splitting into groups and minimizing intermingling between them. This strategy can be pursued by large‐scale infrastructure reorganization of activity at different levels in big logistic units (e.g., large productive networks, factories, enterprises, warehouses, schools, (seasonal) harvest work). Importantly, unlike total lockdown, the proposed approach prevents economic ruin and keeps social life at a more bearable level than distancing everyone from anyone. The declaration for the first time in Europe that COVID‐19 epidemic ended in the two‐million population Slovenia may be taken as support for the strategy proposed here.

中文翻译：

在 COVID-19 大流行期间，抑制群体混居是拉平和延缓流行病学曲线同时使经济和社会生活处于可承受水平的一种有吸引力的选择

以网络建模的人群中的 COVID-19 大流行，其中感染可以通过组内和组间相互作用传播。结果强调了减少群体间感染的重要性，以努力使流行病学（流行病学）曲线显着变平/延迟，同时减轻灾难性的经济和社会后果。例如，将人口分成m（例如，5 或 10）个非相互作用组，同时保持组内相互作用不变，会产生一条拉伸的流行病学曲线，其中每日感染的最大数量及时减少和推迟相同的因子m（5 或 10）。更一般地说，该研究提出了一种实用的方法来对抗 SARS-CoV-2 病毒的传播，该方法基于将人口分组并尽量减少它们之间的混合。这一战略可以通过大型物流单位（例如，大型生产网络、工厂、企业、仓库、学校、（季节性）收获工作）中不同层次的活动的大规模基础设施重组来实现。重要的是，与完全封锁不同，所提议的方法可以防止经济崩溃，并将社会生活保持在比让每个人都远离任何人更容易忍受的水平。欧洲首次宣布在斯洛文尼亚的 200 万人口中结束 COVID-19 流行可以被视为对这里提出的战略的支持。

更新日期：2020-12-07

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